Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were clear favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 23). Anderlecht had 7 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 8 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Anderlecht63%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem15%
Anderlecht64%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem15%
Anderlecht64%
Draw21%
Zulte Waregem15%
Anderlecht56%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem20%
Anderlecht63%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem15%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 18
Team strength
Anderlecht
Zulte Waregem
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
37
AttackIn forecast
27
52
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtZulte Waregem
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+1.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.00
ShotsContext
16.50
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
44%
On target shareContext
27%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
69%
Box shareContext
50%
21%
ConversionContext
6%
3.50
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.50
BlocksContext
3.00
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
50%
Save rateContext
38%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
385
PassesContext
492
302
Accurate passesContext
423
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.77
17.50
FoulsContext
9.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
7.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
—
20%
Clean sheetsContext
—
12.50
ShotsContext
—
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
38%
On target shareContext
—
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
59%
Box shareContext
—
16%
ConversionContext
—
2.56
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
—
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
2.67
BlocksContext
—
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
59%
Save rateContext
—
53%
PossessionIn forecast
—
467
PassesContext
—
384
Accurate passesContext
—
82%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.99
Team ratingContext
—
12.00
FoulsContext
—
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel65 km213 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 3 Aug | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 176 km | 213 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
55M. Kana
4J. Šimić
79A. Maamar
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
10Y. Verschaeren
11T. Hazard
12K. Dolberg
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
3Anton Tanghe
4L. Lemoine
55Y. Cappelle
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
12W. Paugain
36S. Ujka
22J. Opoku
20T. Hedl
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Zulte Waregem · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | W 5–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.50 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Anderlecht | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 11.50 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 1/2 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.39league 3.62
Red cards0.17league 0.19
Cards 5+39%league 33%
Fouls24.5league 23.3
Penalties0.11league 0.38
Home wins33%league 48%
AnderlechtNo previous matches with this referee.
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht2 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
