Angers vs Marseille – 18 Oct 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 18 · 14:00 Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers

Angers 13th · 7 pts · 6 played WLDWL

2–5Full time

Marseille 14th · 6 pts · 6 played LLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Marseille were slight favourites.

Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Marseille. Angers were without J. Lefort and O. Camara. Marseille were without P. Højbjerg. Angers had 7.8 days of rest, Marseille 2.8 and had to travel 656 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel656 kmRest days7.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Angers26%

Draw23%

Marseille50%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.90

Angers28%

Draw26%

Marseille46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Angers26%

Draw24%

Marseille50%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.83

Angers20%

Draw21%

Marseille59%

Expected goals 1.18 – 2.13

Angers27%

Draw24%

Marseille50%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.88

Over 2.5 63% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Angers)

14°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 59%

Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 107

Team strength

Angers

Marseille

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

22 AttackIn forecast 48

12 DefenceIn forecast 46

37 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Angers

Attack−2%

Defense risk−1%

Marseille

Attack+42%

Defense risk−21%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Angers

Marseille

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

2.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

67% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 33%

13.67 ShotsContext 11.83

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

22% On target shareContext 38%

9.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

69% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.40

16.67 Shots allowedContext 16.67

6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

3.67 BlocksContext 5.00

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

79% Save rateContext 77%

50% PossessionIn forecast 58%

425 PassesContext 591

357 Accurate passesContext 525

84% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.50 FoulsContext 10.50

13.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.83

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.40 ShotsContext 13.00

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

25% On target shareContext 38%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.78

69% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.75

16.60 Shots allowedContext 16.00

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.20 BlocksContext 4.78

5.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

75% Save rateContext 73%

45% PossessionIn forecast 54%

385 PassesContext 530

319 Accurate passesContext 463

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.80 FoulsContext 12.20

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Angers WLDWL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km621 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 37 · 7 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Stade Brestois 291–50.9 xPts
W19 SepH · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
D12 SepA · LE Havre0–01.2 xPts
L6 SepH · Rennes1–21.1 xPts
W29 AugA · Auxerre3–11.0 xPts

Marseille LLLWL

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel656 km1,131 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

Form 23 · 3 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected

L15 OctH · Olympiakos Piraeus0–11.3 xPts
W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts
L11 SepA · Rennes0–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Angers	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	656 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	621 km	1,131 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	2 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Angers Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Lopes(G)

27L. Rao-Lisoa 34Maël Gernigon 24E. Biumla 2C. Arcus

8B. van den Boomen 14Y. Belkhdim

10M. Sbaï 6L. Mouton 18J. Allevinah

19A. El Ouazzani

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi

14Igor Paixão 8H. Abdelli 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Angers Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.11 goals

Attack line −1.6% · Defence line −36.9% of weighted minutes

DEF J. Lefort Starter 6.68 Def −13.4%
DEF O. Camara Starter 6.76 Def −12.2%
DEF Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa Starter 6.59 Def −11.3%
ATT U. Simbakoli Rotation 6.37 Att −1.6%

Marseille Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −19.9% · Defence line −16.6% of weighted minutes

MID P. Højbjerg Starter 7.14 Att −13.3% Def −14.5%
ATT K. Abdallah Rotation 6.48 Att −6.6%
DEF D. Cornelius Rotation 6.21 Def −2.1%

Total impact vs full squads

Angers-0.2 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Marseille+0.8 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Angers · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

Marseille · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Angers	Marseille
Estac Troyes	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 A
Rennes	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Angers wins3 draws5 Marseille wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.63 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 38%

17 Jan 2026Angers2–5Marseille
29 Oct 2025Marseille2–2Angers
9 Feb 2025Angers0–2Marseille
4 Oct 2024Marseille1–1Angers
14 May 2023Marseille3–1Angers
30 Sep 2022Angers0–3Marseille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Angers	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	1.50
Conceded per game	1.67	1.33
Match goals	2.83	2.83	3.22
Over 1.5	83%	83%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	63%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	33%	63%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	6	6

	Angers	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.80	1.40
Match goals	2.80	2.80	3.22
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	63%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	63%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Angers	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	7.17	4.17
Corners conceded	5.83	4.83
Match total	13.00	9.00	9.75
Over 8.5	100% 6/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.67
Opponent cards	1.67	2.50
Match total	3.50	4.17	3.37
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6

	Angers	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	4.67
Corners conceded	5.44	4.78
Match total	11.66	9.45	9.75
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	1.80	2.40
Match total	3.60	4.20	3.37
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 107 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 3.22

Red cards0.29league 0.14

Cards 5+52%league 26%

Fouls22.3league 23.7

Penalties0.37league 0.34

Home wins45%league 43%

Angers4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.8 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

D2 Feb 25H · LE Havre1–13
L31 Aug 22H · Reims2–41
L14 May 22A · Metz0–11
W20 Mar 22H · Stade Brestois 291–02

Marseille17 with this referee

Record10-4-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.2 Pens for · against7 · 3 Reds4

L2 May 26A · Nantes0–33
D31 Jan 26A · Paris FC2–24
W21 Nov 25A · Nice5–12
W26 Sep 25A · Strasbourg2–14
L15 Aug 25A · Rennes0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.