Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Angers were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Angers had 7 days of rest, Metz 7 and had to travel 527 km.
Away travel527 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Angers50%
Draw26%
Metz24%
Angers49%
Draw26%
Metz25%
Angers49%
Draw26%
Metz25%
Angers42%
Draw27%
Metz31%
Angers51%
Draw25%
Metz24%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 83
Team strength
Angers
Metz
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
22
AttackIn forecast
11
12
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersMetz
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.37
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
68%
Scored inContext
68%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
8.58
ShotsContext
8.95
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.47
37%
On target shareContext
35%
5.18
Shots in the boxContext
5.94
58%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
14.42
Shots allowedContext
14.32
5.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.95
3.05
BlocksContext
2.94
3.84
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.84
74%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
393
PassesContext
454
323
Accurate passesContext
393
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.89
FoulsContext
10.47
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.11
1.32
Yellow cardsContext
1.47
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.80
ShotsContext
10.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
43%
On target shareContext
38%
4.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
50%
Box shareContext
54%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
2.20
BlocksContext
2.90
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
73%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
428
PassesContext
459
352
Accurate passesContext
396
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.60
FoulsContext
10.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km529 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel527 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 527 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 529 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
35P. Peter
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
97F. Ballo-Touré
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
39K. Kouao
8B. Traoré
21B. Stambouli
33Believe Munongo
7G. Tsitaishvili
30M. Diallo
10G. Hein
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Metz-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.33
Metz · Away
0.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-8
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Marseille | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Nantes | W 4–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Nice | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 1–6 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Monaco | D 1–1 H | L 2–5 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game | 11 of 54 · 0.61 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Angers wins1 draws1 Metz wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 14 Sep 2025Metz1–1Angers
- 14 May 2022Metz1–0Angers
- 3 Oct 2021Angers3–2Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 2.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.37 | 3.47 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 63% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 32% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Angers | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.72 | 4.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.17 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 7/18 | 17% 3/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 4/18 | 17% 3/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.37 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.21 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 2.58 | 3.05 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% 6/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Angers | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.78 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.40 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.63
Red cards0.27league 0.31
Cards 5+36%league 35%
Fouls25.5league 24.3
Penalties0.25league 0.43
Home wins43%league 49%
Angers8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds2
- D14 Sep 25A · Metz1–11
- W13 Apr 25H · Montpellier2–00
- W5 Jan 25H · Stade Brestois 292–02
- L9 Nov 24H · Paris Saint Germain2–40
- L14 May 23A · Marseille1–32
Metz6 with this referee
Record0-3-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L26 Oct 25A · Lille1–62
- D14 Sep 25H · Angers1–10
- L7 Apr 24A · Stade Brestois 293–41
- D5 Nov 23A · Lyon1–11
- D21 Nov 21H · Bordeaux3–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers19 games · scored 20 · conceded 25
1
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
8
3
76-90
Metz19 games · scored 21 · conceded 45
3
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
3
10
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
8
14
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
8
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
