Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 16). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Angers had 13.1 days of rest, Monaco 13.1 and had to travel 746 km.
Away travel746 kmRest days13.1 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Angers20%
Draw25%
Monaco55%
Angers19%
Draw24%
Monaco57%
Angers19%
Draw24%
Monaco57%
Angers15%
Draw22%
Monaco63%
Angers21%
Draw24%
Monaco55%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 79
Team strength
Angers
Monaco
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
22
AttackIn forecast
45
12
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersMonaco
0.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.29
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
43%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.57
ShotsContext
11.86
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
30%
On target shareContext
29%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.29
67%
Box shareContext
69%
6%
ConversionContext
19%
2.17
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.43
Shots allowedContext
11.29
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
3.29
BlocksContext
3.43
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
74%
Save rateContext
62%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
346
PassesContext
512
284
Accurate passesContext
438
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.29
FoulsContext
12.43
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.40
ShotsContext
10.80
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
27%
On target shareContext
32%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
64%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
18%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.71
14.10
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.30
BlocksContext
4.10
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
75%
Save rateContext
60%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
341
PassesContext
489
280
Accurate passesContext
418
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.60
FoulsContext
11.20
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,258 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel746 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 13.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 746 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,258 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
26F. Hanin
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
10H. Abdelli
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
35P. Peter
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
12Caio Henrique
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
20K. Ouattara
28M. Coulibaly
4J. Teze
27K. Diatta
31Ansu Fati
11M. Akliouche
14M. Biereth
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+1.4 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Monaco-1.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Monaco · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | W 3–2 H |
| Metz | D 1–1 A | W 5–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Angers wins0 draws5 Monaco wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 15 Mar 2025Angers0–2Monaco
- 1 Nov 2024Monaco0–1Angers
- 7 May 2023Angers1–2Monaco
- 30 Oct 2022Monaco2–0Angers
- 1 May 2022Monaco2–0Angers
- 1 Dec 2021Angers1–3Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.43 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 86% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 86% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Angers | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.43 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 86% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 86% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 9.71 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.14 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 2.71 | 3.85 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Angers | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 9.50 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.90 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.71
Red cards0.22league 0.32
Cards 5+37%league 35%
Fouls24.6league 24.5
Penalties0.32league 0.52
Home wins43%league 54%
Angers9 with this referee
Record1-1-7
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 3
- L20 Apr 25A · Nice1–21
- L2 Mar 25H · Toulouse0–43
- L1 Sep 24H · Nice1–46
- L7 May 23H · Monaco1–23
- L28 Dec 22A · Ajaccio0–10
Monaco6 with this referee
Record6-0-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 Jan 25H · Rennes3–23
- W3 Dec 23H · Montpellier2–02
- W7 May 23A · Angers2–12
- W19 Mar 23A · Ajaccio2–01
- W1 Jan 23H · Stade Brestois 291–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers7 games · scored 3 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
1
76-90
Monaco7 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
61-75
1
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 19 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
