Angers
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Angers20.0%fair odds 5.00
Draw24.6%fair odds 4.07
Monaco55.4%fair odds 1.80
Expected goals0.97 – 1.76total 2.73
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Monaco
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Angers ↓ · Monaco → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Angers goals, columns Monaco goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.53
- 0–110.9%9.17
- 0–210.1%9.88
- 1–29.8%10.21
- 0–07.1%14.04
- 0–35.9%16.84
- 1–35.7%17.40
- 1–05.7%17.44
- 2–15.4%18.56
- 2–24.7%21.09
Winning margin
1.9%
Angers by 3+
fair 52.84
5.2%
Angers by 2
fair 19.17
12.9%
Angers by 1
fair 7.76
24.6%
Draw
fair 4.07
23.9%
Monaco by 1
fair 4.18
17.2%
Monaco by 2
fair 5.80
14.2%
Monaco by 3+
fair 7.02
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Angers goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Monaco goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers win | 20.0% | 20.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Monaco win | 55.4% | 55.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 53.3% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.9% | 53.8% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Angers | 0.97 | 1.02 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Monaco | 1.76 | 1.79 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Angers win20.0%5.00
- Draw24.6%4.07
- Monaco win55.4%1.80
- Double chance Angers or draw44.6%2.24
- Double chance Angers or Monaco75.4%1.33
- Double chance Monaco or draw80.0%1.25
- Draw no bet Angers26.5%3.77
- Draw no bet Monaco73.5%1.36
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.2%1.31
- Over 2.551.3%1.95
- Over 3.529.2%3.42
- Over 4.514.1%7.08
- Under 1.523.8%4.21
- Under 2.548.7%2.05
- Under 3.570.8%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes51.9%1.93
- No48.1%2.08
- Yes and over 2.540.2%2.49
- Angers win and yes9.9%10.08
- Draw and yes17.5%5.73
- Monaco win and yes24.6%4.07
Team goals
- Angers over 0.562.0%1.61
- Angers over 1.525.2%3.96
- Angers over 2.57.5%13.42
- Monaco over 0.582.8%1.21
- Monaco over 1.552.5%1.90
- Monaco over 2.525.9%3.87
- Angers clean sheet17.2%5.81
- Monaco clean sheet38.0%2.63
- Angers win to nil10.1%9.92
- Monaco win to nil30.9%3.24
Handicap
- Angers −1.57.1%14.07
- Angers −2.51.9%52.84
- Monaco +1.592.9%1.08
- Monaco +2.598.1%1.02
- Monaco −1.531.5%3.18
- Angers +1.568.5%1.46
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored65
Favourite won55.4%
Avg chance given to result43.6%
1X2 Brier0.549
Over 2.5 called right56.9%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.2% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 23 | 44.5% | 47.8% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.1% | 46.2% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.1% | 72.7% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.9% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 88.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 38 of 65 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6281 | 0.5935 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.6% | 40.7% |
| Favourite won | 39.5% | 44.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 38 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 65 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.