Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Angers. Angers had 7 days of rest, Toulouse 7 and had to travel 457 km.
Away travel457 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Angers32%
Draw30%
Toulouse38%
Angers31%
Draw27%
Toulouse42%
Angers32%
Draw30%
Toulouse38%
Angers26%
Draw29%
Toulouse45%
Angers32%
Draw29%
Toulouse39%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 132
Team strength
Angers
Toulouse
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
22
AttackIn forecast
45
12
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersToulouse
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
70%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.95
ShotsContext
12.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
37%
On target shareContext
34%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
59%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.94
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.95
Shots allowedContext
11.25
5.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
3.00
BlocksContext
3.47
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.59
75%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
406
PassesContext
347
337
Accurate passesContext
281
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.90
FoulsContext
14.00
10.95
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.35
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
80%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.20
ShotsContext
11.60
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
41%
On target shareContext
36%
4.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
51%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.60
Shots allowedContext
10.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.30
BlocksContext
2.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
76%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
452
PassesContext
354
378
Accurate passesContext
288
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.00
FoulsContext
14.20
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km529 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel457 km1,403 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 457 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 529 km | 1,403 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen
14Y. Belkhdim
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
27L. Rao-Lisoa
9G. Koyalipou
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
19D. Sidibé
15A. Dønnum
18Pape Diop
23C. Cásseres
22R. Messali
10G. Gboho
11S. Hidalgo
20Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Toulouse+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.20
Toulouse · Away
1.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Marseille | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Nantes | W 4–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 A | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Monaco | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | L 3–6 H |
| Points | 23 of 57 · 1.21 per game | 30 of 57 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Angers wins1 draws3 Toulouse wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 23 Nov 2025Toulouse0–1Angers
- 2 Mar 2025Angers0–4Toulouse
- 20 Oct 2024Toulouse1–1Angers
- 12 Mar 2023Angers0–2Toulouse
- 16 Oct 2022Toulouse3–2Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Angers | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.20 | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.74 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 8.48 | 9.65 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 9/19 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 7/19 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 4/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.35 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 35% 7/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 5% 1/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Angers | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.40 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.10 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 132 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 3.64
Red cards0.23league 0.31
Cards 5+29%league 36%
Fouls23.2league 24.2
Penalties0.36league 0.42
Home wins39%league 49%
Angers6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Sep 25A · Lyon0–12
- W10 May 25H · Strasbourg2–12
- L3 Jun 23A · Nantes0–10
- L9 Oct 22H · Strasbourg2–31
- L26 Jan 22H · Saint Etienne0–11
Toulouse4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D29 Oct 25H · Rennes2–22
- L26 Jan 25H · Montpellier1–21
- L5 Oct 24A · Lille1–22
- D21 Apr 24H · Marseille2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers20 games · scored 21 · conceded 25
1
1
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
8
3
76-90
Toulouse20 games · scored 31 · conceded 23
4
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
10
5
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
