Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Antalyaspor
15th · 16 pts · 18 played
LDLLD
2–1Full time
Genclerbirligi
11th · 19 pts · 18 played
LWDWD
Our take
Antalyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Antalyaspor had 7.1 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 7 and had to travel 384 km.
Away travel384 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antalyaspor41%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi32%
Antalyaspor42%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi31%
Antalyaspor41%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi31%
Antalyaspor34%
Draw28%
Genclerbirligi38%
Antalyaspor41%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi32%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeResat Onur Coskunses
Team strength
AntalyasporGenclerbirligi
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
11
AttackIn forecast
13
14
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporGenclerbirligi
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
67%
Scored inContext
72%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
7.94
ShotsContext
10.28
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.76
42%
On target shareContext
35%
5.24
Shots in the boxContext
6.17
61%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.94
Shots allowedContext
15.17
4.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.94
BlocksContext
4.29
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
64%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
339
PassesContext
306
269
Accurate passesContext
240
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.94
FoulsContext
11.89
14.35
Fouls sufferedContext
13.28
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.00
ShotsContext
11.30
2.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
31%
On target shareContext
35%
4.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
59%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.20
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
61%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
324
PassesContext
315
255
Accurate passesContext
247
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.40
FoulsContext
11.00
14.56
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel384 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 384 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
4H. Türkmen
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
6S. Dikmen
88D. Šarić
2S. Karakoc
8R. Safouri
26N. Storm
22S. van de Streek
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
35O. Ülgün
15A. Dele-Bashiru
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
22S. Koïta
29M. Niang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genclerbirligi+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
0.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 2.75
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-6
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–4 H | L 2–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 H | W 2–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | L 2–5 H | L 0–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 A | W 4–3 H |
| Points | 13 of 51 · 0.76 per game | 19 of 51 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Antalyaspor wins0 draws0 Genclerbirligi wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Genclerbirligi0–1Antalyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 61% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 28% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Antalyaspor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.72 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.39 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 9.17 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 4.66 | 4.28 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 11/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 8/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Antalyaspor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.10 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor18 games · scored 16 · conceded 31
2
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Genclerbirligi18 games · scored 22 · conceded 25
2
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
8
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
4
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
