Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 26). Antwerp had 7.2 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 6.2 and had to travel 86 km.
Away travel86 kmRest days7.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antwerp52%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge22%
Antwerp52%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge22%
Antwerp52%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge22%
Antwerp45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
Antwerp52%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge22%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 29
Team strength
Antwerp
Cercle Brugge
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
24
AttackIn forecast
24
19
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpCercle Brugge
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
67%
Scored inContext
56%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.89
ShotsContext
12.67
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
36%
On target shareContext
33%
5.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
56%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.00
Shots allowedContext
13.44
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.22
BlocksContext
3.13
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
70%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
374
PassesContext
355
305
Accurate passesContext
268
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.56
FoulsContext
10.67
13.22
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.80
ShotsContext
13.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
33%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
58%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.78
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.60
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.10
BlocksContext
3.00
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
70%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
399
PassesContext
353
329
Accurate passesContext
267
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.60
FoulsContext
10.60
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km247 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel86 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 86 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 247 km | 180 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.8 | 14.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
5D. Foulon
26R. Bozhinov
4Yuto Tsunashima
24T. Somers
21A. Verstraeten
33Z. Van Den Bosch
16M. Benítez
30C. Scott
18V. Janssen
22F. Adekami
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
15G. Magnée
66C. Ravych
5Emmanuel Kakou
8Erick
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
6L. Agyekum
9S. Ngoura
10O. Diakité
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Gent | L 1–2 H | L 2–4 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Antwerp wins0 draws0 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 9 Dec 2023Cercle Brugge1–3Antwerp
- 30 Jul 2023Antwerp1–0Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 2.78 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Antwerp | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 2.78 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.77 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 3.55 | 4.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Antwerp | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 10.70 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.60 | 4.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 3.95
Red cards0.24league 0.21
Cards 5+55%league 44%
Fouls23.3league 22.6
Penalties0.10league 0.32
Home wins45%league 40%
Antwerp1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Dec 23A · Cercle Brugge3–11
Cercle Brugge3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Feb 24A · AS Eupen2–03
- L9 Dec 23H · Antwerp1–34
- W2 Sep 23H · KVC Westerlo2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp9 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Cercle Brugge9 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
