Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 37). Antwerp had 6 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 7.8 and had to travel 86 km.
Away travel86 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antwerp26%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV48%
Antwerp26%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV48%
Antwerp26%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV48%
Antwerp20%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV56%
Antwerp26%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV48%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 28
Team strength
Antwerp
Club Brugge KV
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
24
AttackIn forecast
86
19
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpClub Brugge KV
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
64%
Scored inContext
91%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
11.18
ShotsContext
16.00
4.09
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
31%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.09
56%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.90
OffsidesContext
1.90
14.27
Shots allowedContext
11.73
4.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.27
BlocksContext
2.73
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
69%
Save rateContext
82%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
383
PassesContext
561
309
Accurate passesContext
491
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.36
FoulsContext
9.36
13.64
Fouls sufferedContext
12.27
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
1.27
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
14.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
36%
On target shareContext
35%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
52%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.50
BlocksContext
3.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
68%
Save rateContext
72%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
387
PassesContext
527
313
Accurate passesContext
459
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.70
FoulsContext
8.70
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km202 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel86 km220 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Oct | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 86 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 202 km | 220 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
4Yuto Tsunashima
25B. Kouyaté
33Z. Van Den Bosch
5D. Foulon
34M. Diawara
16M. Benítez
24T. Somers
43Y. Hamdaoui
22F. Adekami
18V. Janssen
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
29N. Jackers(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
64K. Sabbe
25A. Stanković
20H. Vanaken
62S. Audoor
8C. Tzolis
17R. Vermant
9Carlos Forbs
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.20
Club Brugge KV · Away
1.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Gent | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | D 5–5 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| OH Leuven | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 9 of 27 · 1.00 per game | 20 of 27 · 2.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Antwerp wins0 draws1 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Feb 2024Antwerp2–1Club Brugge KV
- 29 Oct 2023Club Brugge KV2–1Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.09 | 2.64 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 36% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 9% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 45% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Antwerp | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.82 | 11.30 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 2/11 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 1.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.64 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.00 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Antwerp | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.66 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.40 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.54league 3.88
Red cards0.14league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls22.7league 23.3
Penalties0.43league 0.28
Home wins43%league 42%
Antwerp1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Sep 23H · Gent0–03
Club Brugge KV3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Jan 24H · KVC Westerlo3–00
- D10 Dec 23A · KV Mechelen0–05
- D1 Oct 23H · St. Truiden1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp11 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Club Brugge KV11 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
