Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Antwerp had 14.8 days of rest, Gent 14 and had to travel 56 km.
Away travel56 kmRest days14.8 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Antwerp46%
Draw26%
Gent28%
Antwerp46%
Draw26%
Gent27%
Antwerp46%
Draw26%
Gent28%
Antwerp38%
Draw27%
Gent35%
Antwerp46%
Draw26%
Gent27%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 29
Team strength
Antwerp
Gent
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
24
AttackIn forecast
46
19
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpGent
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
83%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.17
ShotsContext
15.20
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
42%
On target shareContext
33%
4.83
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
55%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.75
15.17
Shots allowedContext
10.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.67
BlocksContext
3.00
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
75%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
351
PassesContext
491
285
Accurate passesContext
410
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.67
FoulsContext
10.60
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.60
ShotsContext
13.90
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
43%
On target shareContext
32%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
59%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.63
OffsidesContext
3.14
12.40
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.80
BlocksContext
3.38
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
76%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
436
PassesContext
488
359
Accurate passesContext
409
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.30
FoulsContext
12.90
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel56 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 14Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 56 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
15Y. Thoelen(G)
26R. Bozhinov
33Z. Van Den Bosch
4Yuto Tsunashima
8D. Praet
5D. Foulon
34M. Diawara
10I. Babadi
24T. Somers
18V. Janssen
7G. Kerk
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
2S. Kotto
22Leonardo Lopes
8M. Skóraś
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
18M. Samoise
37A. Kadri
6O. Gandelman
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Gent · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Antwerp wins2 draws0 Gent wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 25 Feb 2024Gent2–2Antwerp
- 27 Sep 2023Antwerp0–0Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| Antwerp | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.40 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.17 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Antwerp | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 11.00 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.07league 3.67
Red cards0.41league 0.22
Cards 5+62%league 39%
Fouls22.4league 23.1
Penalties0.10league 0.37
Home wins41%league 49%
Antwerp2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Aug 25A · Genk1–12
- D18 Aug 23A · OH Leuven1–12
Gent1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Jul 23H · Kortrijk3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp6 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Gent5 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
