Antwerp
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Antwerp45.8%fair odds 2.19
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Gent27.9%fair odds 3.59
Expected goals1.56 – 1.17total 2.72
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Antwerp ↓ · Gent → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Antwerp goals, columns Gent goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.97
- 1–09.6%10.43
- 2–19.3%10.77
- 2–08.0%12.56
- 0–07.2%13.90
- 0–17.0%14.25
- 1–26.9%14.39
- 2–25.4%18.47
- 3–14.8%20.74
- 0–24.5%22.42
Winning margin
9.6%
Antwerp by 3+
fair 10.45
14.0%
Antwerp by 2
fair 7.13
22.2%
Antwerp by 1
fair 4.51
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
16.4%
Gent by 1
fair 6.09
7.9%
Gent by 2
fair 12.73
3.6%
Gent by 3+
fair 27.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Antwerp goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Gent goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp win | 45.8% | 46.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.4% | -0.0 pp |
| Gent win | 27.9% | 27.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 50.8% | +0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.0% | 54.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Antwerp | 1.56 | 1.56 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.17 | 1.15 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Antwerp win45.8%2.19
- Draw26.4%3.79
- Gent win27.9%3.59
- Double chance Antwerp or draw72.1%1.39
- Double chance Antwerp or Gent73.6%1.36
- Double chance Gent or draw54.2%1.84
- Draw no bet Antwerp62.1%1.61
- Draw no bet Gent37.9%2.64
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.2%1.31
- Over 2.551.2%1.95
- Over 3.529.1%3.43
- Over 4.514.1%7.11
- Under 1.523.8%4.20
- Under 2.548.8%2.05
- Under 3.570.9%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes55.0%1.82
- No45.0%2.22
- Yes and over 2.542.4%2.36
- Antwerp win and yes21.8%4.59
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Gent win and yes14.0%7.14
Team goals
- Antwerp over 0.578.9%1.27
- Antwerp over 1.546.1%2.17
- Antwerp over 2.520.6%4.86
- Gent over 0.568.8%1.45
- Gent over 1.532.5%3.08
- Gent over 2.511.3%8.83
- Antwerp clean sheet31.2%3.21
- Gent clean sheet21.1%4.75
- Antwerp win to nil24.0%4.17
- Gent win to nil13.9%7.21
Handicap
- Antwerp −1.523.6%4.24
- Antwerp −2.59.6%10.45
- Gent +1.576.4%1.31
- Gent +2.590.4%1.11
- Gent −1.511.4%8.74
- Antwerp +1.588.6%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored49
Favourite won51.0%
Avg chance given to result38.7%
1X2 Brier0.598
Over 2.5 called right55.1%
BTTS called right53.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.8% | 22.2% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 44.5% | 44.4% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.3% | 88.9% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 11 of 49 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5697 | 0.6097 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.0% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 63.6% | 54.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 11 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Club Brugge KV18·24·58
- ✓Dender 0–1 Union St. Gilloise23·25·52
- ✓Zulte Waregem 2–0 OH Leuven43·28·29
- ✗Standard Liege 1–1 KV Mechelen38·27·34
- ✓Genk 3–2 Zulte Waregem56·24·20
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Anderlecht48·26·27
- ✓OH Leuven 1–0 Standard Liege38·28·34
- ✗Gent 1–1 Club Brugge KV27·26·48
- ✓Charleroi 3–1 Dender41·27·32
- ✗KVC Westerlo 2–0 Antwerp27·27·46
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 49 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.