Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 21). Antwerp had 7.2 days of rest, OH Leuven 7 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antwerp58%
Draw24%
OH Leuven18%
Antwerp60%
Draw23%
OH Leuven17%
Antwerp58%
Draw24%
OH Leuven18%
Antwerp50%
Draw26%
OH Leuven23%
Antwerp60%
Draw23%
OH Leuven17%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.65
- Matches 17
Team strength
Antwerp
OH Leuven
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
24
AttackIn forecast
17
19
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpOH Leuven
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
0.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.11
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.00
ShotsContext
6.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
64%
On target shareContext
23%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
77%
Box shareContext
85%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.00
Shots allowedContext
17.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.50
2.50
BlocksContext
3.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
73%
Save rateContext
59%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
301
PassesContext
328
227
Accurate passesContext
256
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.54
9.50
FoulsContext
12.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.80
ShotsContext
9.70
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
45%
On target shareContext
27%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
63%
Box shareContext
73%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.10
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
2.25
BlocksContext
3.40
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
73%
Save rateContext
76%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
506
PassesContext
370
424
Accurate passesContext
280
84%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.50
FoulsContext
12.90
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km155 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
OH Leuven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel43 km49 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 3 Aug | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 3 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 155 km | 49 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
91S. Lammens(G)
33Z. Van Den Bosch
26R. Bozhinov
4Yuto Tsunashima
5D. Foulon
20M. Doumbia
8D. Praet
10M. Balikwisha
24T. Somers
18V. Janssen
7G. Kerk
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami
34R. Nyakossi
28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto
8S. Schrijvers
4B. Verstraete
27Óscar Gil
11C. Terho
22J. Mijatović
9A. Traoré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- OH Leuven+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
OH Leuven · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | L 0–5 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Antwerp wins1 draws0 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 2 Dec 2023Antwerp1–0OH Leuven
- 18 Aug 2023OH Leuven1–1Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Antwerp | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 11.50 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Antwerp | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 12.40 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.50 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.65
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+24%league 35%
Fouls22.5league 23.3
Penalties0.65league 0.43
Home wins65%league 48%
Antwerp3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L17 Feb 24H · KV Mechelen0–12
- L28 Jan 24A · AS Eupen0–12
- L21 Oct 23A · Charleroi2–32
OH Leuven2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Feb 24A · Standard Liege0–13
- W1 Sep 23H · Kortrijk3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
OH Leuven2 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
