Antwerp
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Antwerp40.1%fair odds 2.49
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.67
Union St. Gilloise32.7%fair odds 3.06
Expected goals1.41 – 1.25total 2.67
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Antwerp ↓ · Union St. Gilloise → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Antwerp goals, columns Union St. Gilloise goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.71
- 1–09.2%10.90
- 2–18.7%11.50
- 0–18.1%12.41
- 1–27.7%12.97
- 0–07.6%13.15
- 2–06.9%14.40
- 0–25.5%18.33
- 2–25.4%18.35
- 3–14.1%24.40
Winning margin
7.2%
Antwerp by 3+
fair 13.90
12.1%
Antwerp by 2
fair 8.29
20.9%
Antwerp by 1
fair 4.79
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.67
18.4%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 5.43
9.5%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 10.55
4.8%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 20.90
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Antwerp goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
6%4+
Union St. Gilloise goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp win | 40.1% | 40.2% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Union St. Gilloise win | 32.7% | 32.7% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 55.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Antwerp | 1.41 | 1.42 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 1.25 | 1.26 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Antwerp win40.1%2.49
- Draw27.2%3.67
- Union St. Gilloise win32.7%3.06
- Double chance Antwerp or draw67.3%1.49
- Double chance Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise72.8%1.37
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw59.9%1.67
- Draw no bet Antwerp55.1%1.81
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise44.9%2.23
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.57
- Under 1.524.8%4.03
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.541.7%2.40
- Antwerp win and yes19.1%5.22
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes15.9%6.27
Team goals
- Antwerp over 0.575.7%1.32
- Antwerp over 1.541.3%2.42
- Antwerp over 2.517.0%5.89
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.571.4%1.40
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.535.6%2.81
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.513.2%7.57
- Antwerp clean sheet28.6%3.50
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet24.3%4.11
- Antwerp win to nil21.0%4.77
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil16.7%5.98
Handicap
- Antwerp −1.519.3%5.19
- Antwerp −2.57.2%13.90
- Union St. Gilloise +1.580.7%1.24
- Union St. Gilloise +2.592.8%1.08
- Union St. Gilloise −1.514.3%7.01
- Antwerp +1.585.7%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.