Arouca vs Estrela – 19 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 19 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 12th · 32 pts · 29 played LLWWL

1–0Full time

Estrela 15th · 28 pts · 29 played DLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arouca were slight favourites.

Arouca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Arouca. Arouca had 6.9 days of rest, Estrela 7.8 and had to travel 256 km.

Away travel256 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Arouca53%

Draw26%

Estrela21%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.93

Arouca52%

Draw25%

Estrela23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Arouca53%

Draw26%

Estrela21%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.93

Arouca46%

Draw28%

Estrela27%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.05

Arouca54%

Draw25%

Estrela21%

Expected goals 1.73 – 0.99

Over 2.5 47% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.10
Matches 21

Team strength

Arouca

Estrela

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

28 AttackIn forecast 24

37 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Estrela

1.28 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.66

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

69% Scored inContext 55%

21% Clean sheetsContext 24%

10.07 ShotsContext 10.79

3.46 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71

33% On target shareContext 33%

6.29 Shots in the boxContext 5.66

59% Box shareContext 51%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.24

12.90 Shots allowedContext 13.10

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.52

3.92 BlocksContext 4.07

2.81 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

59% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 48%

396 PassesContext 351

327 Accurate passesContext 283

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.34 FoulsContext 13.86

11.62 Fouls sufferedContext 14.90

2.59 Yellow cardsContext 2.52

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.90 ShotsContext 11.30

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

38% On target shareContext 35%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

66% Box shareContext 57%

16% ConversionContext 9%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.60

11.90 Shots allowedContext 13.40

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.00 BlocksContext 5.22

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

67% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

396 PassesContext 371

330 Accurate passesContext 306

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.85

13.10 FoulsContext 13.20

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km141 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estrela

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel256 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr	7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	256 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	141 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

25B. Kuipers 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

22E. van Ee 21T. Fukui

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 10Pablo Gozálbez

17Barbero

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

24B. Langa 14Bernardo Schappo 4S. Leković 21M. Scholze

8Robinho 6Kevin Höög Jansson 39G. Doue

10I. Stoica 9Rodrigo Pinho 99A. Marcus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 1.29points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-6
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.93

Estrela · Away 0.79points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-7
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.86

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Arouca	Estrela
SC Braga	L 0–1 AL 0–4 H	D 3–3 H
Estoril	W 3–2 HL 3–4 A	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A
Moreirense	W 1–0 AL 0–2 H	D 0–0 H
Benfica	L 1–2 HL 0–5 A	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H
Famalicao	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	W 3–2 A
FC Porto	L 1–3 AL 0–4 H	L 1–3 A
Nacional	W 3–0 HW 2–1 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	L 2–3 AL 0–2 H	W 4–0 HW 5–3 A
Guimaraes	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
Rio Ave	W 3–0 AD 3–3 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Sporting CP	L 1–2 HL 0–6 A	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
AVS	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Tondela	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A
Santa Clara	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A
Alverca	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Points	32 of 84 · 1.14 per game	25 of 84 · 0.89 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Arouca wins1 draws2 Estrela wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.20 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 20%

7 Dec 2025Estrela3–1Arouca
19 Apr 2025Arouca1–0Estrela
9 Dec 2024Estrela2–1Arouca
5 May 2024Arouca0–0Estrela
28 Dec 2023Estrela1–4Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.28	1.14
Conceded per game	2.00	1.66
Match goals	3.28	2.79	2.56
Over 1.5	79%	76%
Over 2.5	66%	52%	47%
Over 3.5	48%	38%
Both teams scored	52%	45%	49%
Clean sheets	21%	24%
Failed to score	31%	45%
Games	29	29

	Arouca	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.20	2.56
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	4.04
Corners conceded	5.07	5.44
Match total	8.82	9.48	9.36
Over 8.5	46% 13/28	52% 13/25
Over 9.5	43% 12/28	44% 11/25
Over 10.5	36% 10/28	40% 10/25
Cards
Cards	2.86	2.66
Opponent cards	2.55	2.66
Match total	5.41	5.32	5.06
Over 3.5	76% 22/29	76% 22/29
Over 4.5	59% 17/29	69% 20/29

	Arouca	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.10	4.56
Corners conceded	4.90	6.56
Match total	8.00	11.12	9.36
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.40
Opponent cards	2.60	2.40
Match total	5.10	4.80	5.06
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.43league 4.79

Red cards0.00league 0.24

Cards 5+38%league 57%

Fouls26.8league 26.9

Penalties0.10league 0.43

Home wins52%league 41%

Arouca3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W31 Jan 26A · Rio Ave3–01
W9 Aug 25H · AVS3–12
W25 Aug 24H · Nacional1–02

Estrela

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.