Arouca vs Estrela – 11 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 11 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 6th · 11 pts · 7 played LWDLD

1–0Full time

Estrela 9th · 10 pts · 7 played WDWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arouca were slight favourites.

Arouca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Arouca had 22 days of rest, Estrela 21.2 and had to travel 256 km.

Away travel256 kmRest days22 · 21.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Arouca54%

Draw22%

Estrela23%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.19

Arouca54%

Draw24%

Estrela22%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Arouca54%

Draw22%

Estrela23%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.19

Arouca46%

Draw24%

Estrela30%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.33

Arouca54%

Draw22%

Estrela24%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.19

Over 2.5 60% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.10
Matches 10

Team strength

Arouca

Estrela

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

28 AttackIn forecast 24

37 DefenceIn forecast 27

32 Form indexContext 46

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Estrela

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

71% Scored inContext 86%

43% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.00 ShotsContext 12.86

3.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.43

35% On target shareContext 34%

6.43 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

59% Box shareContext 70%

13% ConversionContext 16%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.25

14.71 Shots allowedContext 11.43

4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.00 BlocksContext 2.14

3.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

79% Save rateContext 60%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

454 PassesContext 388

388 Accurate passesContext 323

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.73

10.43 FoulsContext 11.29

10.86 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.57 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

+0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.50

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.50 ShotsContext 11.00

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

37% On target shareContext 36%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

57% Box shareContext 71%

16% ConversionContext 16%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.20

14.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.20 BlocksContext 2.70

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

73% Save rateContext 62%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

447 PassesContext 353

381 Accurate passesContext 286

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.40 FoulsContext 12.00

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca LWDLD

Rest22 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

D19 SepA · Sporting CP2–20.4 xPts
L13 SepH · Santa Clara1–21.5 xPts
D7 SepA · Estoril0–01.4 xPts
W29 AugH · Maritimo2–11.9 xPts
L23 AugA · FC Porto0–20.6 xPts

Estrela WDWDL

Rest21.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel256 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts
W30 AugA · Nacional3–21.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	22Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep	21.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	256 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	12.8	12.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

18O. Lebedenko 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

8T. Fukui 6E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 10Pablo Gozálbez 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.00

Estrela · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Arouca	Estrela
Sporting CP	D 2–2 A	D 2–2 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Arouca wins1 draws2 Estrela wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 17%

19 Apr 2026Arouca1–0Estrela
7 Dec 2025Estrela3–1Arouca
19 Apr 2025Arouca1–0Estrela
9 Dec 2024Estrela2–1Arouca
5 May 2024Arouca0–0Estrela
28 Dec 2023Estrela1–4Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	2.43	4.00	3.10
Over 1.5	71%	100%
Over 2.5	57%	86%	60%
Over 3.5	29%	71%
Both teams scored	43%	86%	59%
Clean sheets	43%	0%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Arouca	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.90
Match goals	2.90	3.70	3.10
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	60%
Over 3.5	50%	70%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	2.86	4.67
Corners conceded	5.29	4.67
Match total	8.15	9.34	8.91
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	2.71	2.43
Opponent cards	3.14	2.14
Match total	5.85	4.57	4.48
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7

	Arouca	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	4.00
Corners conceded	5.40	5.11
Match total	8.60	9.11	8.91
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.90
Opponent cards	2.80	2.10
Match total	5.40	5.00	4.48
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 4.22

Red cards0.20league 0.22

Cards 5+50%league 45%

Fouls25.2league 25.1

Penalties0.10league 0.33

Home wins60%league 39%

Arouca1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W21 Feb 26H · Nacional3–05

Estrela

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.