Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arouca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Arouca had 7.9 days of rest, Moreirense 5.9 and had to travel 51 km.
Away travel51 kmRest days7.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Arouca40%
Draw28%
Moreirense32%
Arouca41%
Draw27%
Moreirense32%
Arouca40%
Draw28%
Moreirense32%
Arouca33%
Draw28%
Moreirense38%
Arouca41%
Draw27%
Moreirense32%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.6
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 10
Team strength
Arouca
Moreirense
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
28
AttackIn forecast
17
37
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaMoreirense
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
56%
Scored inContext
78%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
8.56
ShotsContext
9.22
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
31%
On target shareContext
33%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
55%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.44
Shots allowedContext
14.11
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
3.44
BlocksContext
3.63
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
49%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
372
PassesContext
385
306
Accurate passesContext
319
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.51
Team ratingContext
6.78
15.22
FoulsContext
14.44
12.78
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
3.11
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.10
ShotsContext
10.20
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
34%
On target shareContext
36%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
55%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.80
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.70
BlocksContext
3.44
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
52%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
376
PassesContext
386
309
Accurate passesContext
321
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.84
15.30
FoulsContext
14.00
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km514 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel51 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 51 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 514 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
58N. Mantl(G)
16Arnau Solà
3José Fontán
66Omar Fayed
28Tiago Esgaio
8David Simão
21T. Fukui
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
44Marcelo
76Dinis Pinto
8M. Stjepanović
20Benny
78Landerson
11Alan
2Diogo Travassos
95Guilherme Schettine
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
1.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.20
Moreirense · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | L 0–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Casa Pia | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rio Ave | D 3–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 5 of 18 · 0.83 per game | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Arouca wins0 draws3 Moreirense wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 24 Jan 2025Arouca1–0Moreirense
- 18 Aug 2024Moreirense3–1Arouca
- 17 Mar 2024Moreirense1–0Arouca
- 27 Oct 2023Arouca0–1Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 3.78 | 2.89 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Arouca | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 3.78 | 2.89 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.12 | 9.01 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.89 | 3.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.56 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.45 | 4.89 | 5.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Arouca | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.66 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.30 | 5.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.40league 5.20
Red cards0.20league 0.28
Cards 5+70%league 63%
Fouls29.9league 27.9
Penalties0.50league 0.48
Home wins30%league 36%
Arouca1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W1 Feb 25A · Nacional2–12
MoreirenseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca8 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Moreirense9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
Arouca9 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
