Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 22). Arouca had 7 days of rest, Sporting CP 7.9 and had to travel 257 km.
Away travel257 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Arouca11%
Draw19%
Sporting CP70%
Arouca11%
Draw18%
Sporting CP71%
Arouca11%
Draw19%
Sporting CP70%
Arouca8%
Draw16%
Sporting CP77%
Arouca11%
Draw18%
Sporting CP71%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Arouca
Sporting CP
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
28
AttackIn forecast
75
37
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaSporting CP
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.78
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
2.26
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.61
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
61%
Scored inContext
100%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
56%
9.56
ShotsContext
18.67
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
30%
On target shareContext
39%
5.71
Shots in the boxContext
12.22
56%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.33
Shots allowedContext
8.28
4.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.06
3.94
BlocksContext
2.39
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
56%
Save rateContext
83%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
399
PassesContext
524
330
Accurate passesContext
459
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.57
Team ratingContext
7.14
13.67
FoulsContext
12.39
11.44
Fouls sufferedContext
13.28
2.72
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+1.09
60%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
14.90
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.89
27%
On target shareContext
42%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.22
54%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
20%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.00
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
4.25
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
60%
Save rateContext
85%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
424
PassesContext
464
351
Accurate passesContext
407
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.56
Team ratingContext
7.08
12.70
FoulsContext
11.60
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel257 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 257 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
3José Fontán
4M. Rocha
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
2Matheus Reis
25G. Inácio
22Iván Fresneda
52João Simões
42M. Hjulmand
31Luis Guilherme
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 2.11
Sporting CP · Away
2.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-0
- Scored
- 2.22
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | W 6–0 H |
| Tondela | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Estrela | L 1–3 A | W 4–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Estoril | L 3–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–5 A | D 1–1 A |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Casa Pia | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Rio Ave | D 3–3 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 17 of 51 · 1.00 per game | 42 of 51 · 2.47 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Arouca wins2 draws4 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.71 – 2.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 17 Aug 2025Sporting CP6–0Arouca
- 15 Feb 2025Sporting CP2–2Arouca
- 13 Sep 2024Arouca0–3Sporting CP
- 10 Mar 2024Arouca0–3Sporting CP
- 8 Oct 2023Sporting CP2–1Arouca
- 16 Apr 2023Sporting CP1–1Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 2.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.39 | 3.28 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 56% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 0% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Arouca | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.12 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 3.13 | |
| Match total | 9.18 | 9.51 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 9/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.06 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.39 | 3.06 | |
| Match total | 5.45 | 5.39 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 15/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 11/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Arouca | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 8.77 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.50 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 5.01
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+33%league 59%
Fouls29.7league 27.3
Penalties1.00league 0.46
Home wins33%league 38%
Arouca2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L25 Oct 25A · Benfica0–52
- D23 Aug 25H · Rio Ave3–33
Sporting CP1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W22 Sep 25H · Moreirense3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca17 games · scored 19 · conceded 37
5
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
7
76-90
Sporting CP18 games · scored 50 · conceded 9
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
13
31-45
8
1
46-60
8
2
61-75
12
2
76-90
Arouca9 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
4
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 29 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
10
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
