AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were clear favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. AS Roma had 5.1 days of rest, Atalanta 5 and had to travel 481 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel481 kmRest days5.1 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
AS Roma65%
Draw19%
Atalanta16%
AS Roma50%
Draw25%
Atalanta25%
AS Roma66%
Draw19%
Atalanta15%
AS Roma57%
Draw21%
Atalanta21%
AS Roma64%
Draw19%
Atalanta16%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
Heat stress
27°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 74%
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 72
Team strength
AS Roma
Atalanta
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
72
AttackIn forecast
48
75
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaAtalanta
4.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
3.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.52
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.84
Goals minus xGContext
+0.98
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.00
ShotsContext
10.00
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
50%
On target shareContext
45%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
72%
Box shareContext
54%
25%
ConversionContext
15%
5.00
OffsidesContext
—
8.00
Shots allowedContext
19.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
—
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
86%
Save rateContext
91%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
604
PassesContext
537
533
Accurate passesContext
477
88%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.50
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.50
FoulsContext
9.50
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
100%
Scored inContext
70%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.40
ShotsContext
13.40
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
44%
On target shareContext
32%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
74%
Box shareContext
65%
20%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.86
8.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
2.71
BlocksContext
3.20
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
74%
Save rateContext
80%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
518
PassesContext
508
450
Accurate passesContext
433
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.70
FoulsContext
12.70
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
WW
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 6 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Aug | 5Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,008 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
77Emanuele Lulli
86Rodrigo Mora
14D. Malen
21P. Dybala
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
23S. Kolašinac
42G. Scalvini
3K. Kossounou
16R. Bellanova
13Éderson
70G. Gaetano
10L. Samardžić
99E. Elmas
9G. Scamacca
17C. De Ketelaere
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Atalanta+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Atalanta · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 AS Roma wins2 draws6 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 18 Apr 2026AS Roma1–1Atalanta
- 3 Jan 2026Atalanta1–0AS Roma
- 12 May 2025Atalanta2–1AS Roma
- 2 Dec 2024AS Roma0–2Atalanta
- 12 May 2024Atalanta2–1AS Roma
- 7 Jan 2024AS Roma1–1Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| AS Roma | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.30 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.50 | 8.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 0.50 | 3.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| AS Roma | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.80 | 8.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.30 | 3.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.68league 3.04
Red cards0.17league 0.00
Cards 5+53%league 13%
Fouls24.9league 22.2
Penalties0.17league 0.00
Home wins38%league 39%
AS Roma10 with this referee
Record4-5-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
- L8 Mar 26A · Genoa1–23
- D15 Feb 26A · Napoli2–21
- D25 Jan 26H · AC Milan1–10
- W5 Oct 25A · Fiorentina2–13
- D6 Apr 25H · Juventus1–11
Atalanta6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W21 Sep 25A · Torino3–00
- L18 Jan 25H · Napoli2–34
- L28 Feb 24A · Inter0–46
- W11 Feb 24A · Genoa4–14
- L11 Mar 23A · Napoli0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma2 games · scored 8 · conceded 0
1
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Atalanta2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
4
2
0-15
5
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
