AS Roma vs Bologna – 23 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 23 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma

1–0Full time

Bologna

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 56). AS Roma had ? days of rest, Bologna ? and had to travel 305 km.

Away travel305 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

AS Roma53%

Draw26%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.99

AS Roma53%

Draw25%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

AS Roma51%

Draw26%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.99

AS Roma45%

Draw27%

Bologna28%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.11

AS Roma54%

Draw25%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.04

Over 2.5 50% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli

Cards per match 2.9
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 24

Team strength

AS Roma

Bologna

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

72 AttackIn forecast 35

75 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Bologna

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

100% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.50 ShotsContext 12.10

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

34% On target shareContext 31%

8.56 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

63% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.29

12.70 Shots allowedContext 6.90

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.00 BlocksContext 2.29

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

91% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 58%

448 PassesContext 438

383 Accurate passesContext 366

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.11 Team ratingContext 6.99

9.70 FoulsContext 13.40

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 17.50

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bologna

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel305 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	305 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

3Angeliño 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 43Wesley

92S. El Shaarawy 18M. Soulé

11E. Ferguson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

22C. Lykogiannis 26J. Lucumí 16N. Casale 29L. De Silvestri

4T. Pobega 8R. Freuler

28N. Cambiaghi 21J. Odgaard 7R. Orsolini

17C. Immobile

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+1.1 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Bologna-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home No home games yet this season.

Bologna · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 AS Roma wins3 draws4 Bologna wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.38 Over 2.538% Both scored38% Clean sheets38% · 50%

12 Jan 2025Bologna2–2AS Roma
10 Nov 2024AS Roma2–3Bologna
22 Apr 2024AS Roma1–3Bologna
17 Dec 2023Bologna2–0AS Roma
14 May 2023Bologna0–0AS Roma
4 Jan 2023AS Roma1–0Bologna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.66
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	50%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	AS Roma	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.66
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	50%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	6.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	AS Roma	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.50
Corners conceded	4.90	3.00
Match total	9.70	9.50	6.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	3.10
Match total	3.30	5.10	4.50
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.75league 4.00

Red cards0.13league 0.50

Cards 5+25%league 50%

Fouls23.0league 30.5

Penalties0.17league 0.00

Home wins67%league 0%

AS Roma3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W9 Feb 25A · Venezia1–03
W17 Jan 25H · Genoa3–11
L25 Aug 24H · Empoli1–20

Bologna3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L18 May 25A · Fiorentina2–32
W2 Mar 25H · Cagliari2–11
L12 Feb 23H · Monza0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.