AS Roma vs Cagliari – 9 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 24 Mon, Feb 9 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 5th · 43 pts · 23 played WWWDL

2–0Full time

Cagliari 12th · 28 pts · 23 played DLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were clear favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 32). Absences weigh more on AS Roma. AS Roma had 7 days of rest, Cagliari 9 and had to travel 412 km.

Away travel412 kmRest days7 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1

AS Roma64%

Draw22%

Cagliari13%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.74

AS Roma67%

Draw20%

Cagliari13%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.83

AS Roma65%

Draw22%

Cagliari13%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.72

AS Roma57%

Draw25%

Cagliari18%

Expected goals 1.69 – 0.83

AS Roma65%

Draw21%

Cagliari13%

Expected goals 2.03 – 0.81

Over 2.5 49% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 44

Team strength

AS Roma

Cagliari

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

72 AttackIn forecast 31

75 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Cagliari

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22

0.61 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

70% Scored inContext 70%

43% Clean sheetsContext 22%

13.39 ShotsContext 10.13

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.73

36% On target shareContext 35%

9.41 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

68% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.18

9.78 Shots allowedContext 13.09

3.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.96

2.68 BlocksContext 3.86

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.77

85% Save rateContext 74%

58% PossessionIn forecast 45%

491 PassesContext 379

412 Accurate passesContext 309

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.79

14.30 FoulsContext 14.65

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.48

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.35

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.50 ShotsContext 11.30

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 35%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

70% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.13

9.10 Shots allowedContext 13.10

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.78 BlocksContext 4.00

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

83% Save rateContext 74%

56% PossessionIn forecast 47%

492 PassesContext 401

412 Accurate passesContext 331

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.87

14.20 FoulsContext 14.30

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,035 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cagliari

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel412 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Cagliari
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Feb	9Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	412 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,035 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

87D. Ghilardi 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 61N. Pisilli 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

7L. Pellegrini 18M. Soulé

14D. Malen

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Cagliari Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1E. Caprile(G)

15J. Rodríguez 22A. Dossena 32Zé Pedro

33A. Obert 4L. Mazzitelli 10G. Gaetano 8M. Adopo 2M. Palestra

94S. Esposito 9S. Kılıçsoy

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Cagliari Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma-0.8 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Cagliari+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 2.00points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 7-1-3
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 0.55

Cagliari · Away 1.08points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-5
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Cagliari
Udinese	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
AC Milan	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Torino	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Sassuolo	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Lecce	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 A
Atalanta	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Genoa	W 3–1 H	L 0–3 AD 3–3 H
Juventus	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Como	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Napoli	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Cremonese	W 3–1 A	D 2–2 A
Parma	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Inter	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Verona	W 2–0 H	W 4–0 HD 2–2 A
Lazio	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Pisa	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
Bologna	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Points	43 of 66 · 1.95 per game	25 of 66 · 1.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 AS Roma wins1 draws1 Cagliari wins

Goals per game1.71 – 0.43 Over 2.543% Both scored29% Clean sheets57% · 29%

7 Dec 2025Cagliari1–0AS Roma
16 Mar 2025AS Roma1–0Cagliari
18 Aug 2024Cagliari0–0AS Roma
5 Feb 2024AS Roma4–0Cagliari
8 Oct 2023Cagliari1–4AS Roma
16 Jan 2022AS Roma1–0Cagliari

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	1.22
Conceded per game	0.61	1.35
Match goals	1.78	2.57	2.63
Over 1.5	48%	78%
Over 2.5	22%	52%	49%
Over 3.5	9%	22%
Both teams scored	26%	52%	45%
Clean sheets	43%	22%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	23	23

	AS Roma	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.50
Conceded per game	0.70	1.20
Match goals	2.10	2.70	2.63
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	20%	70%	49%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	4.87	3.71
Corners conceded	3.26	5.05
Match total	8.13	8.76	8.79
Over 8.5	39% 9/23	52% 11/21
Over 9.5	26% 6/23	29% 6/21
Over 10.5	22% 5/23	19% 4/21
Cards
Cards	2.09	2.35
Opponent cards	2.48	1.96
Match total	4.57	4.31	3.96
Over 3.5	70% 16/23	65% 15/23
Over 4.5	48% 11/23	39% 9/23

	AS Roma	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.40
Corners conceded	3.30	5.70
Match total	7.30	9.10	8.79
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	4.20	3.80	3.96
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.89league 3.80

Red cards0.32league 0.18

Cards 5+66%league 36%

Fouls23.8league 25.5

Penalties0.23league 0.32

Home wins55%league 38%

AS Roma5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

W10 Jan 26H · Sassuolo2–03
L3 Nov 24A · Verona2–32
D1 Apr 24A · Lecce0–02
W5 Feb 24H · Cagliari4–01
W3 Dec 23A · Sassuolo2–11

Cagliari5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D5 May 24H · Lecce1–15
L16 Mar 24A · Monza0–11
L5 Feb 24A · AS Roma0–41
L16 Dec 23A · Napoli1–23
D30 Nov 21A · Verona0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.