AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 51). AS Roma had 4 days of rest, Como 9.1 and had to travel 515 km.
Away travel515 kmRest days4 · 9.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
AS Roma55%
Draw25%
Como21%
AS Roma55%
Draw24%
Como20%
AS Roma54%
Draw25%
Como21%
AS Roma47%
Draw27%
Como26%
AS Roma56%
Draw24%
Como20%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 33
Team strength
AS Roma
Como
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
72
AttackIn forecast
72
75
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaComo
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.79
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
64%
Scored inContext
64%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.64
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.07
36%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
66%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.44
10.50
Shots allowedContext
10.43
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
2.36
BlocksContext
3.25
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
87%
Save rateContext
76%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
482
PassesContext
503
403
Accurate passesContext
437
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.29
FoulsContext
14.50
15.36
Fouls sufferedContext
12.86
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.80
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
37%
On target shareContext
41%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
68%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.38
10.80
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.78
BlocksContext
2.88
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
88%
Save rateContext
80%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
481
PassesContext
512
404
Accurate passesContext
446
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.10
FoulsContext
13.90
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,761 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Como
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel515 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 9.1Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 515 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,761 km | 78 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 11.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
2D. Rensch
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
43Wesley
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
11E. Ferguson
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
6M. Caqueret
38Assane Diao
10N. Paz
42J. Addai
20M. Baturina
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Como+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
1.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.57
Como · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-2
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cremonese | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Parma | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | W 5–1 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 21 of 33 · 1.91 per game | 19 of 33 · 1.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 AS Roma wins0 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 2 Mar 2025AS Roma2–1Como
- 15 Dec 2024Como2–0AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 0.79 | |
| Match goals | 1.64 | 2.14 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 36% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 21% | 29% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 7% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 21% | 43% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 36% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| AS Roma | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 3.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.64 | |
| Match total | 8.64 | 7.19 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 6/14 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 4/14 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.29 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 7/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| AS Roma | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 6.66 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.06league 3.85
Red cards0.03league 0.16
Cards 5+15%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 25.9
Penalties0.24league 0.32
Home wins55%league 40%
AS Roma3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.0.7 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W28 Sep 25H · Verona2–00
- W22 Sep 24H · Udinese3–02
- D20 Aug 23H · Salernitana2–20
Como1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Oct 24A · Napoli1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma14 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Como13 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
46-60
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Como10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
