AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were clear favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 21). Absences weigh more on AS Roma. AS Roma had 7 days of rest, Cremonese 7.2 and had to travel 413 km.
Away travel413 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
AS Roma72%
Draw19%
Cremonese9%
AS Roma76%
Draw16%
Cremonese8%
AS Roma73%
Draw19%
Cremonese9%
AS Roma65%
Draw22%
Cremonese13%
AS Roma73%
Draw18%
Cremonese9%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 70
Team strength
AS Roma
Cremonese
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
72
AttackIn forecast
16
75
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaCremonese
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.84
0.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
72%
Scored inContext
52%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
13.28
ShotsContext
8.84
4.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.24
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
69%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.56
Shots allowedContext
16.56
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
2.70
BlocksContext
4.92
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.46
84%
Save rateContext
78%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
486
PassesContext
369
408
Accurate passesContext
288
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.40
FoulsContext
12.96
14.24
Fouls sufferedContext
12.56
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
2.04
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.30
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
80%
Scored inContext
20%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
9.60
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
33%
On target shareContext
32%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
69%
Box shareContext
53%
11%
ConversionContext
3%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.29
8.20
Shots allowedContext
17.60
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.00
BlocksContext
5.30
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.90
85%
Save rateContext
77%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
464
PassesContext
370
387
Accurate passesContext
289
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.67
14.80
FoulsContext
14.30
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km373 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel413 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 413 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 373 km | 137 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
87D. Ghilardi
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
4B. Cristante
17K. Koné
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
97Bryan Zaragoza
14D. Malen
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
5S. Luperto
55F. Folino
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
32M. Payero
29Y. Maleh
2M. Thorsby
7A. Zerbin
99A. Sanabria
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.11 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Cremonese+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.50
Cremonese · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Udinese | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Torino | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Lecce | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Genoa | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Juventus | L 1–2 A | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Como | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Parma | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Lazio | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 44 of 72 · 1.83 per game | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 AS Roma wins0 draws1 Cremonese wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 23 Nov 2025Cremonese1–3AS Roma
- 28 Feb 2023Cremonese2–1AS Roma
- 22 Aug 2022AS Roma1–0Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 0.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.64 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.16 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 52% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 24% | 36% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 28% | 44% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 48% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| AS Roma | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 80% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.12 | 6.58 | |
| Match total | 7.92 | 10.00 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 9/25 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 24% 6/25 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 5/25 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 3.64 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 17/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 12/25 | 24% 6/25 | |
| AS Roma | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 7.11 | |
| Match total | 7.10 | 10.22 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.30 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.77
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+47%league 37%
Fouls26.3league 25.3
Penalties0.40league 0.32
Home wins34%league 37%
AS Roma9 with this referee
Record6-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against6 · 1
Reds1
- W29 Dec 25H · Genoa3–10
- W25 May 25A · Torino2–01
- W9 Mar 25A · Empoli1–00
- W22 Dec 24H · Parma5–01
- W29 Jan 24A · Salernitana2–13
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Sep 25A · Como1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma25 games · scored 31 · conceded 16
4
3
0-15
7
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Cremonese25 games · scored 21 · conceded 33
3
7
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
7
61-75
7
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 3 · conceded 15
1
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
