AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 53). AS Roma had 4.2 days of rest, FC Midtjylland 21 and had to travel 1,604 km.
Away travel1,604 kmRest days4.2 · 21Matches / 14d1 · 0
AS Roma56%
Draw23%
FC Midtjylland21%
AS Roma55%
Draw24%
FC Midtjylland21%
AS Roma56%
Draw23%
FC Midtjylland20%
AS Roma48%
Draw25%
FC Midtjylland27%
AS Roma55%
Draw24%
FC Midtjylland21%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · MontenegroNikola Dabanovic
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 7
Team strength
AS Roma
FC Midtjylland
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
72
AttackIn forecast
37
75
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Midtjylland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaFC Midtjylland
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.75
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.97
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.75
ShotsContext
12.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
32%
On target shareContext
52%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
63%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
22%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
8.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
2.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
1.75
BlocksContext
3.33
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
84%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
522
PassesContext
389
444
Accurate passesContext
316
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.08
16.50
FoulsContext
14.00
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
2.19
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.00
ShotsContext
13.40
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
35%
On target shareContext
42%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
68%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
19%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.30
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.30
BlocksContext
3.78
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
77%
Save rateContext
82%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
491
PassesContext
425
417
Accurate passesContext
349
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.04
14.90
FoulsContext
12.30
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km825 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Midtjylland
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,604 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
FC Midtjylland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,604 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 825 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
23G. Mancini
5O. Ndicka
87D. Ghilardi
43Wesley
17K. Koné
8N. El Aynaoui
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
21P. Dybala
FC Midtjylland
Confirmed XI
16E. Ólafsson(G)
22M. Bech
6M. Erlić
4O. Diao
55V. Bak Jensen
8P. Billing
19P. Bravo
43M. Mbabu
41M. Krüger-Johnsen
7F. Gluda Djú
21D. Castillo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Midtjylland
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Midtjylland+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
FC Midtjylland · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | FC Midtjylland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| AS Roma | FC Midtjylland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 75% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | FC Midtjylland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.75 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.75 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| AS Roma | FC Midtjylland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 11.30 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.20 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nikola Dabanovic Montenegro · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.86league 4.04
Red cards0.14league 0.17
Cards 5+29%league 43%
Fouls19.1league 24.8
Penalties0.14league 0.39
Home wins71%league 49%
AS RomaNo previous matches with this referee.
FC MidtjyllandNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma4 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
FC Midtjylland4 games · scored 11 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
FC Midtjylland10 games · scored 25 · conceded 9
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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