AS Roma
Attack+9%
Defense risk−22%
Our take
AS Roma were clear favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 30). Absences weigh more on AS Roma. AS Roma were without D. Malen and M. Svilar. Genoa were without L. Colombo and D. Sow. AS Roma had 3 days of rest, Genoa 7.2 and had to travel 402 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel402 kmRest days3 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
AS Roma71%
Draw18%
Genoa11%
AS Roma71%
Draw18%
Genoa10%
AS Roma73%
Draw17%
Genoa10%
AS Roma64%
Draw21%
Genoa15%
AS Roma72%
Draw17%
Genoa11%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
19°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 53
Team strength
AS Roma
Genoa
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
72
AttackIn forecast
23
75
DefenceIn forecast
44
60
Form indexContext
22
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack−21%
Defense risk+32%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
AS RomaGenoa
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
2.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
83%
Scored inContext
67%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.67
ShotsContext
11.50
6.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
33%
On target shareContext
28%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
68%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
3.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.50
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
2.50
BlocksContext
6.40
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
81%
Save rateContext
61%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
509
PassesContext
390
438
Accurate passesContext
321
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.64
12.17
FoulsContext
9.83
8.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
90%
Scored inContext
50%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.60
ShotsContext
10.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
36%
On target shareContext
26%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
70%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.29
BlocksContext
5.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
77%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
520
PassesContext
394
452
Accurate passesContext
322
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.20
FoulsContext
9.70
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
DWDDL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,030 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 60 · 6 pts vs 4.9 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Genoa
LLDLW
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel402 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 22 · 4 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct | 7.2Serie A 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 402 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,030 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
95P. Gollini(G)
3K. Koulierakis
5O. Ndicka
26L. Balerdi
2D. Rensch
61N. Pisilli
15M. de Roon
77Emanuele Lulli
86Rodrigo Mora
18M. Soulé
9S. Castro
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
31D. Puczka
32M. Frendrup
71S. Wiafe
77M. Ellertsson
92S. El Shaarawy
10J. Messias
18M. Osmajić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.15 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −63.5% · Defence line −29.7% of weighted minutes
- ATT D. Malen Core 7.27 Att −32.7%
- DEF M. Svilar Starter 7.02 Def −17.0%
- MID B. Cristante Starter 7.02 Att −10.7% Def −7.4%
- MID M. Koné Starter 6.96 Att −7.7% Def −5.3%
- ATT P. Dybala Starter 7.09 Att −12.3%
Genoa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −24.3% · Defence line −7.6% of weighted minutes
- ATT L. Colombo Starter 6.58 Att −15.4%
- MID D. Sow Starter 6.72 Att −6.7% Def −4.2%
- MID Alexsandro Amorim Rotation 6.69 Att −2.0% Def −1.3%
- DEF S. Otoa Rotation 6.70 Def −2.0%
- MID E. Meichtry Depth 6.30 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma-2.4 pp
- Draw+1.2 pp
- Genoa+1.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Genoa · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Como | D 0–0 A | L 1–4 H |
| Fiorentina | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 AS Roma wins2 draws2 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.13
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 8 Mar 2026Genoa2–1AS Roma
- 29 Dec 2025AS Roma3–1Genoa
- 17 Jan 2025AS Roma3–1Genoa
- 15 Sep 2024Genoa1–1AS Roma
- 19 May 2024AS Roma1–0Genoa
- 28 Sep 2023Genoa4–1AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.67 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| AS Roma | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 9.17 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.83 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| AS Roma | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.40 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 3.30
Red cards0.34league 0.06
Cards 5+49%league 29%
Fouls24.7league 21.6
Penalties0.34league 0.13
Home wins28%league 48%
AS Roma4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D12 Jan 25A · Bologna2–21
- W29 Sep 24H · Venezia2–11
- D5 Feb 22H · Genoa0–03
- W29 Aug 21A · Salernitana4–02
Genoa4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L21 Dec 25H · Atalanta0–12
- L29 Oct 25H · Cremonese0–23
- D13 Mar 22A · Atalanta0–00
- D5 Feb 22A · AS Roma0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma6 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Genoa6 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
