AS Roma vs Lille – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 17:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–1Full time

Lille 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 60). Absences weigh more on Lille. AS Roma had 4.2 days of rest, Lille 4.1 and had to travel 1,205 km.

Away travel1,205 kmRest days4.2 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

AS Roma54%

Draw24%

Lille22%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.12

AS Roma51%

Draw25%

Lille23%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.06

AS Roma52%

Draw24%

Lille23%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.14

AS Roma47%

Draw25%

Lille28%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.26

AS Roma53%

Draw25%

Lille22%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.05

Over 2.5 58% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 37

Team strength

AS Roma

Lille

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

72 AttackIn forecast 42

75 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Lille

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

90% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.20 ShotsContext 15.30

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

36% On target shareContext 27%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

61% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.90

10.50 Shots allowedContext 9.60

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

2.88 BlocksContext 2.22

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

84% Save rateContext 62%

55% PossessionIn forecast 58%

481 PassesContext 498

406 Accurate passesContext 424

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.92

13.20 FoulsContext 11.80

13.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lille

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,205 km63 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep	4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,205 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	946 km	63 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 19M. Çelik

12K. Tsimikas 8N. El Aynaoui 4B. Cristante 43Wesley

7L. Pellegrini

11E. Ferguson 18M. Soulé

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Lille Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1B. Özer(G)

24C. Verdonk 23A. Mandi 18C. Mbemba 12T. Meunier

11O. Sahraoui 32A. Bouaddi 6N. Bentaleb 27Félix Correia

9O. Giroud 10H. Haraldsson

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lille Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+2.2 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Lille-1.5 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home No home games yet this season.

Lille · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	AS Roma	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	2.14
Conceded per game	0.33	1.43
Match goals	1.50	3.57	3.00
Over 1.5	33%	71%
Over 2.5	17%	71%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	29%
Both teams scored	17%	57%	58%
Clean sheets	67%	14%
Failed to score	17%	29%
Games	6	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	11.00
Corners conceded	3.00	4.00
Match total	8.00	15.00	9.28
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	5.00	1.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	3.00	4.50
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	AS Roma	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	6.70
Corners conceded	3.20	3.70
Match total	8.40	10.40	9.28
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	3.60	4.00	4.50
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.97league 4.39

Red cards0.14league 0.11

Cards 5+41%league 56%

Fouls23.0league 26.3

Penalties0.30league 0.22

Home wins46%league 39%

AS Roma

No previous matches with this referee.

Lille

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.