AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were clear favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Pisa. AS Roma had 5 days of rest, Pisa 5.1 and had to travel 265 km.
Away travel265 kmRest days5 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
AS Roma64%
Draw23%
Pisa13%
AS Roma77%
Draw15%
Pisa8%
AS Roma66%
Draw22%
Pisa12%
AS Roma57%
Draw26%
Pisa17%
AS Roma66%
Draw21%
Pisa13%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 40
Team strength
AS Roma
Pisa
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
72
AttackIn forecast
15
75
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaPisa
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.74
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.77
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
77%
Scored inContext
45%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
12.90
ShotsContext
9.52
4.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
34%
On target shareContext
28%
9.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.21
70%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.12
OffsidesContext
1.96
10.03
Shots allowedContext
14.74
3.97
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.53
2.80
BlocksContext
4.07
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.19
76%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
475
PassesContext
313
397
Accurate passesContext
239
84%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.10
FoulsContext
12.71
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.39
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.03
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
100%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.40
ShotsContext
8.10
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
27%
On target shareContext
31%
9.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
79%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.10
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
58%
Save rateContext
53%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
450
PassesContext
328
368
Accurate passesContext
254
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.67
14.60
FoulsContext
12.60
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel265 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 265 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 957 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
87D. Ghilardi
2D. Rensch
61N. Pisilli
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
14D. Malen
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
8M. Højholt
20M. Aebischer
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
7M. Léris
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.7 pp
- Pisa+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-3
- Scored
- 1.53
- Conceded
- 0.60
Pisa · Away
0.53points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-8-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 2–5 AL 0–1 H | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Como | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Juventus | D 3–3 HL 1–2 A | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Cremonese | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Napoli | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Torino | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Parma | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Verona | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 51 of 90 · 1.70 per game | 18 of 90 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 AS Roma wins0 draws0 Pisa wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025Pisa0–1AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 0.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.77 | |
| Match goals | 2.26 | 2.52 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 45% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 42% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 55% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| AS Roma | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.10 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.97 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.19 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 8.16 | 8.53 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 13/31 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 9/31 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 7/31 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 20/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 13/31 | 35% 11/31 | |
| AS Roma | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.60 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.95league 3.73
Red cards0.03league 0.19
Cards 5+15%league 35%
Fouls22.9league 25.0
Penalties0.28league 0.30
Home wins53%league 40%
AS Roma4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W15 Dec 25H · Como1–03
- W28 Sep 25H · Verona2–00
- W22 Sep 24H · Udinese3–02
- D20 Aug 23H · Salernitana2–20
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Mar 26H · Bologna0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma31 games · scored 42 · conceded 28
5
4
0-15
7
16-30
5
5
31-45
6
7
46-60
12
3
61-75
7
9
76-90
Pisa31 games · scored 23 · conceded 55
5
6
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
12
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
10
61-75
5
16
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
7
46-60
6
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 24
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
