AS Roma vs Sassuolo – 10 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 10 · 17:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 5th · 36 pts · 19 played WLWLW

2–0Full time

Sassuolo 11th · 23 pts · 19 played DLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were clear favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 27). AS Roma had 4 days of rest, Sassuolo 3.9 and had to travel 347 km.

Away travel347 kmRest days4 · 3.9Matches / 14d3 · 3

AS Roma69%

Draw20%

Sassuolo11%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.72

AS Roma71%

Draw18%

Sassuolo11%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.79

AS Roma69%

Draw20%

Sassuolo11%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.72

AS Roma63%

Draw23%

Sassuolo15%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.81

AS Roma71%

Draw18%

Sassuolo11%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.79

Over 2.5 54% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 42

Team strength

AS Roma

Sassuolo

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

72 AttackIn forecast 41

75 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Sassuolo

1.16 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.21

0.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

68% Scored inContext 68%

42% Clean sheetsContext 21%

12.95 ShotsContext 10.21

4.74 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.68

37% On target shareContext 36%

9.17 Shots in the boxContext 6.53

68% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.53 Shots allowedContext 13.26

3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.00 BlocksContext 3.00

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

85% Save rateContext 73%

57% PossessionIn forecast 46%

481 PassesContext 394

401 Accurate passesContext 324

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.75

14.53 FoulsContext 12.16

14.42 Fouls sufferedContext 13.58

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.32

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.30 ShotsContext 10.60

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

40% On target shareContext 37%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

69% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.11

10.40 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.78 BlocksContext 2.80

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

85% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

462 PassesContext 415

379 Accurate passesContext 345

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.77

14.20 FoulsContext 10.90

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,969 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sassuolo

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel347 km121 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Sassuolo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Jan	3.9Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	347 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,969 km	121 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 23G. Mancini 87D. Ghilardi

12K. Tsimikas 17K. Koné 61N. Pisilli 19M. Çelik

18M. Soulé

11E. Ferguson 21P. Dybala

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 80T. Muharemović 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz

90I. Koné 18N. Matić 35L. Lipani

45A. Laurienté 99A. Pinamonti 20A. Fadera

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Sassuolo Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sassuolo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 2.00points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 6-0-3
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 0.56

Sassuolo · Away 1.33points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.22

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Sassuolo
Lecce	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 A
Atalanta	L 0–1 A	W 3–0 A
Genoa	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 H
Juventus	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 H
Como	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Cagliari	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Napoli	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Cremonese	W 3–1 A	L 2–3 A
Udinese	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Parma	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Inter	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 H
Verona	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Lazio	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Torino	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 H
Pisa	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
Bologna	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Points	33 of 54 · 1.83 per game	23 of 54 · 1.28 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 AS Roma wins2 draws1 Sassuolo wins

Goals per game1.71 – 1.29 Over 2.557% Both scored71% Clean sheets29% · 0%

26 Oct 2025Sassuolo0–1AS Roma
17 Mar 2024AS Roma1–0Sassuolo
3 Dec 2023Sassuolo1–2AS Roma
12 Mar 2023AS Roma3–4Sassuolo
9 Nov 2022Sassuolo1–1AS Roma
13 Feb 2022Sassuolo2–2AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.16	1.21
Conceded per game	0.63	1.32
Match goals	1.79	2.53	2.85
Over 1.5	42%	74%
Over 2.5	26%	53%	54%
Over 3.5	11%	26%
Both teams scored	26%	53%	46%
Clean sheets	42%	21%
Failed to score	32%	32%
Games	19	19

	AS Roma	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.30
Conceded per game	0.80	1.50
Match goals	2.30	2.80	2.85
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	46%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.37
Corners conceded	3.37	4.47
Match total	8.37	7.84	8.83
Over 8.5	42% 8/19	53% 10/19
Over 9.5	26% 5/19	37% 7/19
Over 10.5	26% 5/19	11% 2/19
Cards
Cards	2.11	2.42
Opponent cards	2.32	1.89
Match total	4.43	4.31	4.02
Over 3.5	68% 13/19	68% 13/19
Over 4.5	47% 9/19	32% 6/19

	AS Roma	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	3.40
Corners conceded	3.40	4.10
Match total	7.70	7.50	8.83
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.00
Opponent cards	2.20	1.50
Match total	4.80	3.50	4.02
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.86league 3.88

Red cards0.33league 0.16

Cards 5+64%league 37%

Fouls23.7league 25.7

Penalties0.21league 0.31

Home wins52%league 37%

AS Roma4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

L3 Nov 24A · Verona2–32
D1 Apr 24A · Lecce0–02
W5 Feb 24H · Cagliari4–01
W3 Dec 23A · Sassuolo2–11

Sassuolo6 with this referee

Record1-1-4 Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L28 Apr 24A · Fiorentina1–52
L3 Dec 23H · AS Roma1–25
L13 May 23A · Inter2–43
W4 Feb 23H · Atalanta1–05
L15 Oct 22A · Atalanta1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.