AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AS Roma69.5%fair odds 1.44
Draw19.7%fair odds 5.08
Sassuolo10.9%fair odds 9.20
Expected goals2.13 – 0.72total 2.85
Likeliest score2–013.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sassuolo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AS Roma ↓ · Sassuolo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AS Roma goals, columns Sassuolo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.1%7.61
- 1–011.9%8.41
- 2–19.4%10.59
- 1–19.4%10.69
- 3–09.3%10.74
- 3–16.7%14.93
- 0–06.3%15.92
- 4–05.0%20.20
- 0–13.7%26.98
- 4–13.6%28.09
Winning margin
24.1%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 4.14
21.3%
AS Roma by 2
fair 4.71
24.1%
AS Roma by 1
fair 4.15
19.7%
Draw
fair 5.08
7.8%
Sassuolo by 1
fair 12.78
2.4%
Sassuolo by 2
fair 41.17
0.6%
Sassuolo by 3+
fair 161.06
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
AS Roma goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Sassuolo goals
49%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 69.5% | 70.6% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 19.7% | 18.5% | +1.2 pp |
| Sassuolo win | 10.9% | 10.9% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 59.1% | -4.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 45.6% | 49.3% | -3.6 pp |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 2.13 | 2.28 | -0.15 |
| Expected goals Sassuolo | 0.72 | 0.79 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AS Roma win69.5%1.44
- Draw19.7%5.08
- Sassuolo win10.9%9.20
- Double chance AS Roma or draw89.1%1.12
- Double chance AS Roma or Sassuolo80.3%1.24
- Double chance Sassuolo or draw30.5%3.27
- Draw no bet AS Roma86.5%1.16
- Draw no bet Sassuolo13.5%7.39
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.1%1.28
- Over 2.554.1%1.85
- Over 3.531.8%3.14
- Over 4.515.9%6.27
- Under 1.521.9%4.57
- Under 2.545.9%2.18
- Under 3.568.2%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes45.6%2.19
- No54.4%1.84
- Yes and over 2.536.3%2.76
- AS Roma win and yes27.0%3.70
- Draw and yes13.4%7.47
- Sassuolo win and yes5.2%19.11
Team goals
- AS Roma over 0.588.1%1.14
- AS Roma over 1.562.7%1.59
- AS Roma over 2.535.8%2.80
- Sassuolo over 0.551.3%1.95
- Sassuolo over 1.516.2%6.16
- Sassuolo over 2.53.6%27.41
- AS Roma clean sheet48.7%2.05
- Sassuolo clean sheet11.9%8.39
- AS Roma win to nil42.4%2.36
- Sassuolo win to nil5.6%17.72
Handicap
- AS Roma −1.545.4%2.20
- AS Roma −2.524.1%4.14
- Sassuolo +1.554.6%1.83
- Sassuolo +2.575.9%1.32
- Sassuolo −1.53.0%32.79
- AS Roma +1.597.0%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored188
Favourite won48.9%
Avg chance given to result39.8%
1X2 Brier0.617
Over 2.5 called right55.3%
BTTS called right47.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 29 | 37.8% | 37.9% |
| 40–50% | 60 | 44.7% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 54.6% | 41.3% |
| 60–70% | 34 | 64.7% | 67.6% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 73.1% | 57.1% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 167 of 188 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6135 | 0.5937 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.7% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 48.5% | 49.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 167 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 188 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.