AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AS Roma62.8%fair odds 1.59
Draw22.7%fair odds 4.41
Torino14.6%fair odds 6.87
Expected goals1.89 – 0.80total 2.69
Likeliest score1–012.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Torino
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AS Roma ↓ · Torino → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AS Roma goals, columns Torino goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–012.3%8.11
- 2–012.2%8.21
- 1–110.8%9.27
- 2–19.7%10.32
- 3–07.7%13.01
- 0–07.3%13.61
- 3–16.1%16.36
- 0–14.9%20.54
- 1–24.1%24.56
- 2–23.9%25.95
Winning margin
18.4%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 5.43
19.6%
AS Roma by 2
fair 5.11
24.8%
AS Roma by 1
fair 4.04
22.7%
Draw
fair 4.41
10.1%
Torino by 1
fair 9.90
3.5%
Torino by 2
fair 28.94
1.0%
Torino by 3+
fair 100.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
AS Roma goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Torino goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 62.8% | 64.1% | -1.3 pp |
| Draw | 22.7% | 21.3% | +1.4 pp |
| Torino win | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 55.9% | -5.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.1% | 51.3% | -4.1 pp |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 1.89 | 2.05 | -0.15 |
| Expected goals Torino | 0.80 | 0.87 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AS Roma win62.8%1.59
- Draw22.7%4.41
- Torino win14.6%6.87
- Double chance AS Roma or draw85.4%1.17
- Double chance AS Roma or Torino77.3%1.29
- Double chance Torino or draw37.2%2.69
- Draw no bet AS Roma81.2%1.23
- Draw no bet Torino18.8%5.31
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.575.5%1.33
- Over 2.550.3%1.99
- Over 3.528.3%3.53
- Over 4.513.5%7.39
- Under 1.524.5%4.07
- Under 2.549.7%2.01
- Under 3.571.7%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes47.1%2.12
- No52.9%1.89
- Yes and over 2.536.3%2.75
- AS Roma win and yes25.0%4.01
- Draw and yes15.3%6.52
- Torino win and yes6.8%14.64
Team goals
- AS Roma over 0.584.9%1.18
- AS Roma over 1.556.4%1.77
- AS Roma over 2.529.4%3.40
- Torino over 0.554.9%1.82
- Torino over 1.519.0%5.28
- Torino over 2.54.7%21.39
- AS Roma clean sheet45.1%2.22
- Torino clean sheet15.1%6.64
- AS Roma win to nil37.8%2.65
- Torino win to nil7.7%12.95
Handicap
- AS Roma −1.538.0%2.63
- AS Roma −2.518.4%5.43
- Torino +1.562.0%1.61
- Torino +2.581.6%1.23
- Torino −1.54.5%22.45
- AS Roma +1.595.5%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored23
Favourite won56.5%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.610
Over 2.5 called right60.9%
BTTS called right52.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 37.6% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 43.4% | 28.6% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 51.5% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.0% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.2% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 3 of 23 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6284 | 0.5423 |
| Avg chance given to result | 35.5% | 40.0% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 100.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 3 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 23 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.