AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were clear favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 39). AS Roma had 14.7 days of rest, Torino 13.8 and had to travel 526 km.
Away travel526 kmRest days14.7 · 13.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
AS Roma63%
Draw23%
Torino15%
AS Roma64%
Draw21%
Torino15%
AS Roma63%
Draw23%
Torino15%
AS Roma56%
Draw25%
Torino19%
AS Roma64%
Draw21%
Torino15%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 43
Team strength
AS Roma
Torino
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
74
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
72
AttackIn forecast
39
75
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaTorino
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-1.02
100%
Scored inContext
0%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
42%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
59%
Box shareContext
76%
8%
ConversionContext
0%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.50
Shots allowedContext
18.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
—
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
100%
Save rateContext
54%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
493
PassesContext
333
409
Accurate passesContext
276
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.48
12.00
FoulsContext
13.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
100%
Scored inContext
30%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
38%
On target shareContext
31%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
62%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
4%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
2.89
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
90%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
437
PassesContext
384
372
Accurate passesContext
317
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.60
FoulsContext
11.60
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Torino
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel526 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.7Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.8Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 526 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
22Hermoso
3Angeliño
4B. Cristante
17K. Koné
43Wesley
8N. El Aynaoui
21P. Dybala
18M. Soulé
Torino
Confirmed XI
81F. Israel(G)
44A. Ismajli
13G. Maripán
23Saúl Coco
34C. Biraghi
32K. Asllani
22C. Casadei
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
18G. Simeone
26C. Ngonge
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Torino+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Torino · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 AS Roma wins2 draws0 Torino wins
Goals per game1.63 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets63% · 0%
- 25 May 2025Torino0–2AS Roma
- 31 Oct 2024AS Roma1–0Torino
- 26 Feb 2024AS Roma3–2Torino
- 24 Sep 2023Torino1–1AS Roma
- 8 Apr 2023Torino0–1AS Roma
- 13 Nov 2022AS Roma1–1Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| AS Roma | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 10.50 | 9.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| AS Roma | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.80 | 9.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.70 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.53league 3.39
Red cards0.30league 0.09
Cards 5+77%league 30%
Fouls27.8league 25.7
Penalties0.16league 0.17
Home wins40%league 43%
AS Roma4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Oct 23H · Monza1–02
- L27 May 23A · Fiorentina1–23
- D9 Nov 22A · Sassuolo1–13
- W3 Oct 21H · Empoli2–02
Torino4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Oct 24H · Como1–03
- W16 Feb 24H · Lecce2–01
- L10 Feb 23A · AC Milan0–14
- L10 Sep 22A · Inter0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma2 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
76-90
Torino2 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 4 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
