Aston Villa vs Bologna – 25 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 25 · 20:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa

1–0Full time

Bologna

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 55). Aston Villa had 4.3 days of rest, Bologna 5.3 and had to travel 1,316 km.

Away travel1,316 kmRest days4.3 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Aston Villa60%

Draw22%

Bologna18%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.00

Aston Villa59%

Draw23%

Bologna18%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.95

Aston Villa60%

Draw22%

Bologna18%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.00

Aston Villa52%

Draw25%

Bologna23%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.12

Aston Villa59%

Draw23%

Bologna18%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.95

Over 2.5 57% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 32

Team strength

Aston Villa

Bologna

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

83 AttackIn forecast 35

78 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Bologna

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

50% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.70 ShotsContext 11.50

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

29% On target shareContext 24%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

66% Box shareContext 62%

6% ConversionContext 8%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.30

12.60 Shots allowedContext 9.30

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

3.50 BlocksContext 3.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

79% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

420 PassesContext 406

354 Accurate passesContext 336

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.50 FoulsContext 12.50

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 17.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km795 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bologna

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,316 km401 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Sep	5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,316 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	795 km	401 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40M. Bizot(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

44B. Kamara 7J. McGinn

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 29E. Guessand

17D. Malen

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

22C. Lykogiannis 26J. Lucumí 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea

28N. Cambiaghi 8R. Freuler 19L. Ferguson 10F. Bernardeschi

21J. Odgaard 9S. Castro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Bologna+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home No home games yet this season.

Bologna · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Aston Villa wins0 draws0 Bologna wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

22 Oct 2024Aston Villa2–0Bologna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.99
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Aston Villa	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	0.20	0.75
Conceded per game	1.00	0.75
Match goals	1.20	1.50	2.99
Over 1.5	40%	25%
Over 2.5	20%	25%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	20%	25%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	25%
Failed to score	80%	50%
Games	5	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.18
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.55
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Aston Villa	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	6.50
Corners conceded	4.78	3.50
Match total	10.11	10.00	9.18
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.30
Opponent cards	2.70	3.00
Match total	4.90	5.30	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.47league 4.55

Red cards0.25league 0.00

Cards 5+50%league 55%

Fouls25.4league 25.2

Penalties0.41league 0.18

Home wins34%league 45%

Aston Villa1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D27 Nov 24H · Juventus0–03

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.