Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were clear favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 42). Aston Villa had 4.2 days of rest, BSC Young Boys 20.9 and had to travel 910 km.
Away travel910 kmRest days4.2 · 20.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
Aston Villa72%
Draw17%
BSC Young Boys10%
Aston Villa71%
Draw18%
BSC Young Boys11%
Aston Villa72%
Draw18%
BSC Young Boys10%
Aston Villa65%
Draw20%
BSC Young Boys14%
Aston Villa71%
Draw18%
BSC Young Boys11%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeGeorgi Kabakov
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 26
Team strength
Aston Villa
BSC Young Boys
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
42
83
AttackIn forecast
45
78
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBSC Young Boys
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaBSC Young Boys
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
100%
Scored inContext
75%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.25
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
46%
On target shareContext
33%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
66%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.50
Shots allowedContext
17.75
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
4.00
BlocksContext
1.75
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
90%
Save rateContext
52%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
474
PassesContext
429
417
Accurate passesContext
358
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.67
FoulsContext
12.25
16.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
10.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
41%
On target shareContext
33%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
58%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.50
Shots allowedContext
16.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.22
4.22
BlocksContext
4.11
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
74%
Save rateContext
55%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
444
PassesContext
384
382
Accurate passesContext
312
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.64
10.11
FoulsContext
14.40
15.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km296 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
BSC Young Boys
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel910 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
BSC Young Boys |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 910 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 296 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
14Pau Torres
3V. Lindelöf
26L. Bogarde
8Y. Tielemans
24A. Onana
19J. Sancho
27M. Rogers
29E. Guessand
17D. Malen
BSC Young Boys
Confirmed XI
1M. Keller(G)
23L. Benito
30S. Lauper
4B. Zoukrou
3J. Hadjam
13D. Pech
45R. Raveloson
17S. Janko
16C. Fassnacht
39D. Males
9S. Córdova
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
BSC Young Boys
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- BSC Young Boys-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
BSC Young Boys · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Aston Villa wins0 draws0 BSC Young Boys wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 17 Sep 2024BSC Young Boys0–3Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | BSC Young Boys | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Aston Villa | BSC Young Boys | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | BSC Young Boys | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 9.67 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 0.75 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.25 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Aston Villa | BSC Young Boys | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 11.88 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.60 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Georgi Kabakov 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.85league 4.04
Red cards0.23league 0.17
Cards 5+54%league 43%
Fouls20.4league 24.8
Penalties0.12league 0.39
Home wins31%league 49%
Aston Villa1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Sep 24A · BSC Young Boys3–01
BSC Young Boys1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Sep 24H · Aston Villa0–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa4 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
BSC Young Boys4 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
BSC Young Boys10 games · scored 12 · conceded 25
4
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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