Premier League Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 23 2025 · 14:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Leeds
1–2 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 1.79 – 1.58
Aston Villa
  • L. Nmecha 8’
  • 48’, 75’ M. Rogers
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Aston Villa come from behind to beat Leeds

Aston Villa entered as narrow favourites, yet Leeds led 1–0 at half-time through a Nmecha goal. But Rogers struck twice to turn it around for Aston Villa, who won 2–1. The chances were even, with xG of 1.79 and 1.58. On the chances created, Leeds deserved more: 1.5 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Leeds31%
Draw25%
Aston Villa ✓44%

Model vs reality

Leeds goals
1
Model 1.33 · xG 1.79
Aston Villa goals
2
Model 1.64 · xG 1.58
Total goals
3
Model 2.97 · xG 3.37
Score 1–2
9%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 57%
Both scored
Yes
Model 60%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchM. RogersAston Villa · 2 goals
8.3
  • RefereeRobert Jones
  • VenueElland Road
  • Table before kick-offLeeds 18th · Aston Villa 9th

Timeline

  1. L. Nmecha 1–0
    8’
  2. ⇄ A. TanakaFor A. Stach
    23’
  3. J. BogleYellow card · Time wasting
    41’
  4. A. TanakaYellow card · Foul
    45+3’
  5. Half time · 1–0
  6. ⇄ D. MalenFor E. Buendía
    46’
  7. ⇄ I. MaatsenFor L. Digne
    46’
  8. M. Rogers 1–1Assist D. Malen
    48’
  9. J. McGinnYellow card · Persistent fouling
    53’
  10. E. AmpaduYellow card · Foul
    63’
  11. ⇄ R. BarkleyFor J. McGinn
    68’
  12. ⇄ J. SanchoFor O. Watkins
    68’
  13. ⇄ D. JamesFor L. Nmecha
    71’
  14. P. StruijkYellow card · Foul
    74’
  15. M. Rogers 1–2
    75’
  16. VAR D. Calvert-LewinGoal cancelled
    78’
  17. ⇄ J. PiroeFor B. Aaronson
    80’
  18. ⇄ D. GnontoFor N. Okafor
    80’
  19. ⇄ L. BogardeFor Y. Tielemans
    84’
  20. D. GnontoYellow card · Foul
    89’
  21. Full time · 1–2

Team stats

Leeds14 shots · 9 in box, 5 outside
Aston Villa14 shots · 8 in box, 6 outside
LeedsAston Villa
48% Possession 52%
1.79 Expected goals (xG) 1.58
1.52 Expected points (xPts) 1.26
14 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 3
5 Shots off target 7
4 Blocked shots 4
9 Shots inside the box 8
5 Shots outside the box 6
400 Passes 449
85% Pass accuracy 80%
3 Corners 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
18 Fouls 16
4 Offsides 2
5 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.81 Team rating 7.13

Line-ups

Leeds 4-3-3

15.9 Lucas Perri(G)
36.9 G. Gudmundsson 56.6 P. Struijk 66.6 J. Rodon 26.9 J. Bogle
186.3 A. Stach ↓23’ 47.2 E. Ampadu 87.3 S. Longstaff
197.0 N. Okafor ↓80’ 147.6 L. Nmecha ↓71’ 116.2 B. Aaronson ↓80’
  • 1Lucas Perri (G)5.9
  • 3G. Gudmundsson6.9
  • 5P. Struijk6.6
  • 6J. Rodon6.6
  • 2J. Bogle6.9
  • 18A. Stach↓23’6.3
  • 4E. Ampadu7.2
  • 8S. Longstaff7.3
  • 19N. Okafor↓80’7.0
  • 14L. Nmecha↓71’7.6
  • 11B. Aaronson↓80’6.2

Substitutes used

  • 7D. James↑71’6.7
  • 10J. Piroe↑80’6.3
  • 22A. Tanaka↑23’7.2
  • 29D. Gnonto↑80’6.6

Unused: K. Darlow, D. Calvert-Lewin, J. Justin, J. Bijol, I. Gruev

Aston Villa 4-4-2

237.3 E. Martínez(G)
126.7 L. Digne ↓46’ 147.0 Pau Torres 47.2 E. Konsa 26.9 M. Cash
106.3 E. Buendía ↓46’ 87.6 Y. Tielemans ↓84’ 447.7 B. Kamara 76.3 J. McGinn ↓68’
116.5 O. Watkins ↓68’ 278.3★ M. Rogers
  • 23E. Martínez (G)7.3
  • 12L. Digne↓46’6.7
  • 14Pau Torres7.0
  • 4E. Konsa7.2
  • 2M. Cash6.9
  • 10E. Buendía↓46’6.3
  • 8Y. Tielemans↓84’7.6
  • 44B. Kamara7.7
  • 7J. McGinn↓68’6.3
  • 11O. Watkins↓68’6.5
  • 27M. Rogers ★8.3

Substitutes used

  • 6R. Barkley↑68’6.3
  • 17D. MalenA↑46’7.5
  • 22I. Maatsen↑46’6.9
  • 26L. Bogarde↑84’6.7
  • 19J. Sancho↑68’6.3

Unused: M. Bizot, V. Lindelöf, E. Guessand, George Hemmings

Player stats

Top rated
M. RogersAston Villa8.3
2nd
B. KamaraAston Villa7.7
3rd
L. NmechaLeeds7.6

Leeds

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Lucas Perri G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 45% 20 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.9
G. Gudmundsson D 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 76% 29 5 0 2/2 1/2 6.9
P. Struijk D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 94% 65 0 1 0/0 1/0 6.6
J. Rodon D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 93% 43 2 4 0/0 1/0 6.6
J. Bogle D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 74% 35 1 0 1/3 1/3 6.9
A. Stach M 23 0 0 1 (1) 0 100% 10 0 0 0/1 1/1 6.3
E. Ampadu D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 89% 54 5 2 0/0 1/1 7.2
S. Longstaff M 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 88% 42 3 1 0/1 3/2 7.3
N. Okafor F 80 0 0 0 (0) 0 71% 14 2 1 2/4 1/1 7.0
L. Nmecha F 71 1 0 1 (1) 1 62% 13 1 0 0/2 2/0 7.6
B. Aaronson M 80 0 0 2 (1) 0 86% 22 3 0 1/5 1/1 6.2
D. James M 19 0 0 2 (1) 1 100% 9 0 0 1/1 0/1 6.7
J. Piroe F 10 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 6 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
A. Tanaka M 67 0 0 0 (0) 1 97% 30 3 3 1/2 2/2 7.2
D. Gnonto F 10 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 7 0 0 0/0 1/2 6.6

Aston Villa

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
E. Martínez G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 72% 32 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.3
L. Digne D 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 72% 18 1 1 0/0 0/1 6.7
Pau Torres D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 68 3 0 0/1 0/1 7.0
E. Konsa D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 97% 64 1 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
M. Cash D 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 89% 27 3 1 1/1 3/1 6.9
E. Buendía M 46 0 0 1 (0) 0 64% 14 2 1 0/0 1/1 6.3
Y. Tielemans M 84 0 0 0 (0) 2 75% 60 3 0 1/1 2/4 7.6
B. Kamara M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 76% 54 2 2 1/1 0/2 7.7
J. McGinn M 68 0 0 1 (0) 1 84% 31 1 0 2/3 4/2 6.3
O. Watkins F 68 0 0 3 (1) 1 56% 9 0 0 2/5 1/1 6.5
M. Rogers F 90 2 0 2 (2) 2 65% 20 0 1 4/9 2/1 8.3
R. Barkley M 22 0 0 0 (0) 0 77% 13 0 0 0/1 1/1 6.3
D. Malen F 44 0 1 2 (0) 2 83% 6 1 0 1/2 0/1 7.5
I. Maatsen D 44 0 0 0 (0) 0 80% 15 3 0 0/0 1/0 6.9
L. Bogarde M 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 71% 7 0 1 0/0 1/0 6.7
J. Sancho F 22 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.