Premier League Gameweek 29 Wed, Mar 4 2026 · 19:30 Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston Villa
1–4 Full time · HT 1–2 xG 0.78 – 3.60
Chelsea
  • Douglas Luiz 2’
  • 35’, 45’, 64’ João Pedro
  • 55’ C. Palmer
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Pedro hat-trick turns it around for Chelsea

Aston Villa led 1–0 after 2 minutes through a Luiz goal. But Pedro and Palmer scored to turn it around for Chelsea, who won 4–1. Chelsea finished with the higher xG (3.60 vs 0.78).

Aston Villa36%
Draw25%
Chelsea ✓39%

Model vs reality

Aston Villa goals
1
Model 1.53 · xG 0.78
Chelsea goals
4
Model 1.59 · xG 3.60
Total goals
5
Model 3.12 · xG 4.38
Score 1–4
2%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 60%
Both scored
Yes
Model 63%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchJoão PedroChelsea · 3 goals · 1 assist
9.6
  • RefereeJarred Gillett
  • VenueVilla Park
  • Table before kick-offAston Villa 4th · Chelsea 6th

Timeline

  1. Douglas Luiz 1–0Assist L. Bailey
    2’
  2. M. CashYellow card · Foul
    32’
  3. João Pedro 1–1Assist M. Gusto
    35’
  4. VAR O. WatkinsGoal cancelled
    42’
  5. João Pedro 1–2Assist E. Fernández
    45’
  6. Half time · 1–2
  7. ⇄ L. BogardeFor M. Cash
    46’
  8. João PedroYellow card · Foul
    54’
  9. C. Palmer 1–3Assist João Pedro
    55’
  10. M. RogersYellow card · Argument
    58’
  11. E. FernándezYellow card · Argument
    58’
  12. ⇄ R. BarkleyFor Douglas Luiz
    63’
  13. ⇄ Alysson EdwardFor L. Bailey
    63’
  14. ⇄ J. SanchoFor E. Buendía
    63’
  15. João Pedro 1–4Assist A. Garnacho
    64’
  16. O. WatkinsYellow card · Foul
    68’
  17. ⇄ T. AbrahamFor O. Watkins
    72’
  18. ⇄ R. LaviaFor M. Gusto
    75’
  19. ⇄ T. AdarabioyoFor W. Fofana
    79’
  20. ⇄ Marc CucurellaFor E. Fernández
    79’
  21. ⇄ Andrey SantosFor C. Palmer
    85’
  22. ⇄ L. DelapFor João Pedro
    85’
  23. Full time · 1–4

Team stats

Aston Villa9 shots · 6 in box, 3 outside
Chelsea15 shots · 14 in box, 1 outside
Aston VillaChelsea
43% Possession 57%
0.78 Expected goals (xG) 3.60
0.21 Expected points (xPts) 2.70
9 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 8
4 Shots off target 3
1 Blocked shots 4
6 Shots inside the box 14
3 Shots outside the box 1
431 Passes 565
86% Pass accuracy 91%
3 Corners 8
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
10 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 2
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
6.50 Team rating 7.37

Line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

236.6 E. Martínez(G)
225.9 I. Maatsen 56.5 T. Mings 46.2 E. Konsa 25.9 M. Cash ↓46’
217.3 Douglas Luiz ↓63’ 246.7 A. Onana
275.9 M. Rogers 107.0 E. Buendía ↓63’ 317.0 L. Bailey A↓63’
116.7 O. Watkins ↓72’
  • 23E. Martínez (G)6.6
  • 22I. Maatsen5.9
  • 5T. Mings6.5
  • 4E. Konsa6.2
  • 2M. Cash↓46’5.9
  • 21Douglas Luiz↓63’7.3
  • 24A. Onana6.7
  • 27M. Rogers5.9
  • 10E. Buendía↓63’7.0
  • 31L. BaileyA↓63’7.0
  • 11O. Watkins↓72’6.7

Substitutes used

  • 6R. Barkley↑63’7.0
  • 26L. Bogarde↑46’6.2
  • 47Alysson Edward↑63’6.3
  • 18T. Abraham↑72’6.7
  • 19J. Sancho↑63’6.9

Unused: M. Bizot, V. Lindelöf, Pau Torres, L. Digne

Chelsea 4-3-3

126.7 F. Jørgensen(G)
216.9 J. Hato 237.0 T. Chalobah 296.2 W. Fofana ↓79’ 277.3 M. Gusto A↓75’
87.2 E. Fernández A↓79’ 257.2 M. Caicedo 247.2 R. James
497.6 A. Garnacho A 209.6★ João Pedro A↓85’ 108.6 C. Palmer ↓85’
  • 12F. Jørgensen (G)6.7
  • 21J. Hato6.9
  • 23T. Chalobah7.0
  • 29W. Fofana↓79’6.2
  • 27M. GustoA↓75’7.3
  • 8E. FernándezA↓79’7.2
  • 25M. Caicedo7.2
  • 24R. James7.2
  • 49A. GarnachoA7.6
  • 20João Pedro ★A↓85’9.6
  • 10C. Palmer↓85’8.6

Substitutes used

  • 17Andrey Santos↑85’6.3
  • 4T. Adarabioyo↑79’6.6
  • 3Marc Cucurella↑79’7.0
  • 9L. Delap↑85’6.2
  • 45R. Lavia↑75’6.7

Unused: Robert Sánchez, B. Badiashile, M. Sarr, Marc Guiu

Player stats

Top rated
João PedroChelsea9.6
2nd
C. PalmerChelsea8.6
3rd
A. GarnachoChelsea7.6

Aston Villa

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
E. Martínez G 90 0 0 4 sv 1 84% 38 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
I. Maatsen D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 46 2 4 0/1 0/3 5.9
T. Mings D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 60 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
E. Konsa D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 98% 50 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
M. Cash D 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 12 0 0 0/1 2/0 5.9
Douglas Luiz M 63 1 0 1 (1) 0 86% 36 0 0 0/0 2/0 7.3
A. Onana M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 42 1 0 0/0 2/1 6.7
M. Rogers F 90 0 0 3 (1) 0 72% 29 0 0 0/2 1/0 5.9
E. Buendía M 63 0 0 0 (0) 1 79% 19 2 1 0/0 0/1 7.0
L. Bailey M 63 0 1 0 (0) 1 67% 6 1 1 2/4 0/1 7.0
O. Watkins F 72 0 0 2 (2) 0 75% 8 1 1 0/0 2/2 6.7
R. Barkley M 27 0 0 0 (0) 1 89% 28 1 0 0/0 0/0 7.0
L. Bogarde M 44 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 24 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
Alysson Edward M 27 0 0 1 (0) 0 100% 8 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
T. Abraham F 18 0 0 1 (0) 0 67% 3 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
J. Sancho F 27 0 0 0 (0) 2 95% 22 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.9

Chelsea

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
F. Jørgensen G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 85% 46 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
J. Hato D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 95% 57 2 0 2/2 1/0 6.9
T. Chalobah D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 80 1 0 0/0 2/1 7.0
W. Fofana D 79 0 0 1 (0) 0 96% 52 0 2 0/0 1/1 6.2
M. Gusto D 75 0 1 0 (0) 1 86% 49 2 1 0/1 1/1 7.3
E. Fernández M 79 0 1 1 (1) 3 93% 45 2 0 0/0 1/2 7.2
M. Caicedo M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 97% 58 0 1 0/0 0/0 7.2
R. James D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 92% 61 1 3 2/2 0/0 7.2
A. Garnacho F 90 0 1 1 (1) 6 100% 27 4 0 0/2 0/3 7.6
João Pedro F 85 3 1 5 (4) 1 56% 18 2 0 1/2 2/2 9.6
C. Palmer M 85 1 0 2 (2) 3 92% 36 1 2 1/2 0/0 8.6
Andrey Santos M 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
T. Adarabioyo D 11 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
Marc Cucurella D 11 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 7 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.0
L. Delap F 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 33% 3 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
R. Lavia M 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.