Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Aston Villa36.3%fair odds 2.75
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.02
Chelsea38.8%fair odds 2.58
Expected goals1.53 – 1.59total 3.12
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Chelsea
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Aston Villa ↓ · Chelsea → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Aston Villa goals, columns Chelsea goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.84
- 1–28.5%11.72
- 2–18.2%12.16
- 2–26.5%15.31
- 0–16.4%15.51
- 1–06.2%16.15
- 0–25.6%17.94
- 2–05.2%19.32
- 0–05.0%20.06
- 1–34.5%22.12
Winning margin
6.9%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 14.47
10.9%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 9.19
18.5%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 5.40
24.9%
Draw
fair 4.02
19.2%
Chelsea by 1
fair 5.20
11.7%
Chelsea by 2
fair 8.54
7.9%
Chelsea by 3+
fair 12.74
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
21%5+
Aston Villa goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Chelsea goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 36.3% | 35.9% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.5% | -1.6 pp |
| Chelsea win | 38.8% | 37.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 53.3% | +7.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.9% | 57.6% | +5.4 pp |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.53 | 1.39 | +0.15 |
| Expected goals Chelsea | 1.59 | 1.43 | +0.16 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Aston Villa win36.3%2.75
- Draw24.9%4.02
- Chelsea win38.8%2.58
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw61.2%1.63
- Double chance Aston Villa or Chelsea75.1%1.33
- Double chance Chelsea or draw63.7%1.57
- Draw no bet Aston Villa48.3%2.07
- Draw no bet Chelsea51.7%1.94
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.582.4%1.21
- Over 2.560.3%1.66
- Over 3.538.0%2.63
- Over 4.520.5%4.87
- Under 1.517.6%5.67
- Under 2.539.7%2.52
- Under 3.562.0%1.61
Both teams to score
- Yes62.9%1.59
- No37.1%2.70
- Yes and over 2.551.6%1.94
- Aston Villa win and yes20.9%4.79
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- Chelsea win and yes22.2%4.51
Team goals
- Aston Villa over 0.578.4%1.28
- Aston Villa over 1.545.3%2.21
- Aston Villa over 2.519.9%5.03
- Chelsea over 0.579.6%1.26
- Chelsea over 1.547.1%2.12
- Chelsea over 2.521.4%4.68
- Aston Villa clean sheet20.4%4.90
- Chelsea clean sheet21.6%4.62
- Aston Villa win to nil15.4%6.48
- Chelsea win to nil16.6%6.01
Handicap
- Aston Villa −1.517.8%5.62
- Aston Villa −2.56.9%14.47
- Chelsea +1.582.2%1.22
- Chelsea +2.593.1%1.07
- Chelsea −1.519.6%5.11
- Aston Villa +1.580.4%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored285
Favourite won49.8%
Avg chance given to result39.3%
1X2 Brier0.619
Over 2.5 called right53.7%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 39 | 38.2% | 38.5% |
| 40–50% | 101 | 44.9% | 45.5% |
| 50–60% | 83 | 54.8% | 53.0% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 64.2% | 56.8% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 73.6% | 59.1% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 241 of 285 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6256 | 0.6113 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 39.9% |
| Favourite won | 48.5% | 50.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 241 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 285 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.