Aston Villa vs Chelsea – 4 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 29 Wed, Mar 4 · 19:30 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 4th · 51 pts · 28 played LDWDL

1–4Full time

Chelsea 6th · 45 pts · 28 played WWDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Chelsea. Aston Villa had 5 days of rest, Chelsea 3.1 and had to travel 163 km.

Away travel163 kmRest days5 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Aston Villa36%

Draw25%

Chelsea39%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.59

Aston Villa45%

Draw27%

Chelsea29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Aston Villa36%

Draw25%

Chelsea39%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.57

Aston Villa29%

Draw24%

Chelsea47%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.78

Aston Villa36%

Draw26%

Chelsea38%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.43

Over 2.5 60% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 102

Team strength

Aston Villa

Chelsea

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

83 AttackIn forecast 77

78 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Chelsea

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

1.07 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.18

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

68% Scored inContext 93%

29% Clean sheetsContext 32%

12.71 ShotsContext 13.46

4.36 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.64

34% On target shareContext 35%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

62% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.68 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.93 BlocksContext 3.15

3.12 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.96

72% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 59%

450 PassesContext 538

383 Accurate passesContext 468

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.89 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.18 FoulsContext 11.25

13.18 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 2.51

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.20 ShotsContext 14.70

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

34% On target shareContext 39%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

62% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 16%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.20 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.30 BlocksContext 3.10

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

82% Save rateContext 74%

56% PossessionIn forecast 63%

472 PassesContext 633

401 Accurate passesContext 570

85% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.40 FoulsContext 10.10

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km38 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel163 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Feb	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	38 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	9.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

22I. Maatsen 5T. Mings 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

21Douglas Luiz 24A. Onana

27M. Rogers 10E. Buendía 31L. Bailey

11O. Watkins

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-3-3

12F. Jørgensen(G)

21J. Hato 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

8E. Fernández 25M. Caicedo 24R. James

49A. Garnacho 20João Pedro 10C. Palmer

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Chelsea+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 2.07points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 9-2-3
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 0.79

Chelsea · Away 1.57points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 6-4-4
Scored: 1.86
Conceded: 1.21

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Aston Villa	Chelsea
Wolves	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H
Leeds	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Brighton	W 1–0 HW 4–3 A	L 1–3 H
Bournemouth	D 1–1 AW 4–0 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Brentford	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Newcastle	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 A
Everton	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	W 2–0 H
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 AL 0–3 H	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–1 H	W 3–0 A
Arsenal	L 1–4 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Manchester United	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
West Ham	W 3–2 A	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A
Liverpool	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
Manchester City	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Burnley	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Fulham	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Points	48 of 81 · 1.78 per game	45 of 81 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Aston Villa wins1 draws4 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.60 Over 2.570% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 30%

27 Dec 2025Chelsea1–2Aston Villa
22 Feb 2025Aston Villa2–1Chelsea
1 Dec 2024Chelsea3–0Aston Villa
27 Apr 2024Aston Villa2–2Chelsea
24 Sep 2023Chelsea0–1Aston Villa
1 Apr 2023Chelsea0–2Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.75
Conceded per game	1.07	1.18
Match goals	2.43	2.93	3.12
Over 1.5	68%	89%
Over 2.5	46%	64%	60%
Over 3.5	21%	36%
Both teams scored	50%	68%	63%
Clean sheets	29%	32%
Failed to score	32%	7%
Games	28	28

	Aston Villa	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.90
Conceded per game	0.80	1.40
Match goals	1.70	3.30	3.12
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	10%	70%	60%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	90%	63%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.41	6.22
Corners conceded	4.74	4.30
Match total	10.15	10.52	10.01
Over 8.5	74% 20/27	81% 22/27
Over 9.5	67% 18/27	74% 20/27
Over 10.5	48% 13/27	52% 14/27
Cards
Cards	1.54	2.68
Opponent cards	2.54	2.32
Match total	4.08	5.00	3.89
Over 3.5	61% 17/28	68% 19/28
Over 4.5	39% 11/28	64% 18/28

	Aston Villa	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	6.50
Corners conceded	4.44	3.90
Match total	10.66	10.40	10.01
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.60
Opponent cards	2.60	2.30
Match total	4.30	4.90	3.89
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 102 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.76

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 39%

Fouls20.2league 21.5

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins37%league 43%

Aston Villa12 with this referee

Record6-3-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W25 Jan 26A · Newcastle2–02
W19 Apr 25H · Newcastle4–11
W8 Mar 25A · Brentford1–02
W4 Jan 25H · Leicester2–10
D17 Mar 24A · West Ham1–13

Chelsea8 with this referee

Record3-4-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against4 · 0 Reds1

W7 Feb 26A · Wolves3–11
W1 Nov 25A · Tottenham1–02
D1 Sep 24H · Crystal Palace1–14
W4 Apr 24H · Manchester United4–33
D2 Mar 24A · Brentford2–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.