Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 74). Aston Villa had 8.2 days of rest, Crystal Palace 7.2 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days8.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Aston Villa51%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace24%
Aston Villa50%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace25%
Aston Villa51%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace24%
Aston Villa43%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace31%
Aston Villa50%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace25%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 118
Team strength
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
83
AttackIn forecast
64
78
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaCrystal Palace
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.70
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
0%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
9.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
25%
On target shareContext
42%
—
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
—
Box shareContext
62%
0%
ConversionContext
5%
—
OffsidesContext
—
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
5.00
BlocksContext
5.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
80%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
449
PassesContext
302
371
Accurate passesContext
228
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.00
FoulsContext
11.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
70%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.90
ShotsContext
13.60
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
37%
On target shareContext
35%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
72%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
2.80
BlocksContext
4.20
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
83%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
397
PassesContext
356
332
Accurate passesContext
276
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.30
FoulsContext
9.60
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km311 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Crystal Palace
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel163 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 311 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.8 | 12.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
40M. Bizot(G)
22I. Maatsen
5T. Mings
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
7J. McGinn
29E. Guessand
27M. Rogers
17D. Malen
11O. Watkins
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
6A. Guéhi
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
19W. Hughes
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
18Daichi Kamada
7I. Sarr
14J. Mateta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Crystal Palace · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Aston Villa wins2 draws4 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.60 – 2.00
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 25 Feb 2025Crystal Palace4–1Aston Villa
- 23 Nov 2024Aston Villa2–2Crystal Palace
- 19 May 2024Crystal Palace5–0Aston Villa
- 16 Sep 2023Aston Villa3–1Crystal Palace
- 4 Mar 2023Aston Villa1–0Crystal Palace
- 20 Aug 2022Crystal Palace3–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 1.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.50 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.50 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Aston Villa | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 9.01 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.60 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 118 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.45
Red cards0.13league 0.10
Cards 5+41%league 38%
Fouls21.0league 22.4
Penalties0.19league 0.31
Home wins51%league 52%
Aston Villa13 with this referee
Record5-4-4
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.2
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds1
- W10 May 25A · Bournemouth1–05
- W2 Apr 25A · Brighton3–03
- L1 Dec 24A · Chelsea0–32
- D29 Sep 24A · Ipswich2–21
- W30 Dec 23H · Burnley3–24
Crystal Palace7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D27 Apr 24A · Fulham1–12
- L19 Mar 23A · Arsenal1–41
- D28 Aug 21A · West Ham2–20
- L7 Mar 21A · Tottenham1–43
- L26 Jan 21H · West Ham2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa2 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Crystal Palace2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
