Premier League Gameweek 27 Sat, Feb 21 2026 · 15:00 Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston Villa
1–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 1.46 – 1.35
Leeds
  • T. Abraham 88’
  • 31’ A. Stach
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Aston Villa snatch a late draw

Aston Villa entered as favourites, yet Leeds led 1–0 at half-time through a Stach goal. But Abraham scored to rescue a draw for Aston Villa. The chances were even, with xG of 1.46 and 1.35.

Aston Villa56%
Draw ✓23%
Leeds21%

Model vs reality

Aston Villa goals
1
Model 1.97 · xG 1.46
Leeds goals
1
Model 1.14 · xG 1.35
Total goals
2
Model 3.11 · xG 2.81
Score 1–1
11%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 60%
Both scored
Yes
Model 59%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchA. StachLeeds · 1 goal
8.3
  • RefereeMichael Oliver
  • VenueVilla Park
  • Table before kick-offAston Villa 3rd · Leeds 15th

Timeline

  1. A. Stach 0–1
    31’
  2. Half time · 0–1
  3. ⇄ J. BijolFor G. Gudmundsson
    46’
  4. ⇄ R. BarkleyFor A. Onana
    61’
  5. ⇄ J. SanchoFor L. Bailey
    61’
  6. J. BijolYellow card · Foul
    62’
  7. K. DarlowYellow card · Time wasting
    69’
  8. E. BuendíaYellow card · Foul
    73’
  9. ⇄ L. NmechaFor B. Aaronson
    73’
  10. ⇄ T. AbrahamFor E. Buendía
    75’
  11. J. BogleYellow card · Foul
    79’
  12. ⇄ S. LongstaffFor A. Stach
    83’
  13. ⇄ L. BogardeFor Douglas Luiz
    87’
  14. ⇄ Andrés GarcíaFor M. Cash
    87’
  15. T. Abraham 1–1
    88’
  16. I. GruevYellow card · Foul
    90+2’
  17. Full time · 1–1

Team stats

Aston Villa16 shots · 6 in box, 10 outside
Leeds14 shots · 9 in box, 5 outside
Aston VillaLeeds
67% Possession 33%
1.46 Expected goals (xG) 1.35
1.45 Expected points (xPts) 1.30
16 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 4
7 Shots off target 6
5 Blocked shots 4
6 Shots inside the box 9
10 Shots outside the box 5
520 Passes 256
85% Pass accuracy 71%
7 Corners 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
11 Fouls 16
4 Offsides 5
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
6.86 Team rating 7.00

Line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

236.7 E. Martínez(G)
226.3 I. Maatsen 56.6 T. Mings 47.3 E. Konsa 27.6 M. Cash ↓87’
217.7 Douglas Luiz ↓87’ 246.6 A. Onana ↓61’
106.2 E. Buendía ↓75’ 276.9 M. Rogers 316.2 L. Bailey ↓61’
116.6 O. Watkins
  • 23E. Martínez (G)6.7
  • 22I. Maatsen6.3
  • 5T. Mings6.6
  • 4E. Konsa7.3
  • 2M. Cash↓87’7.6
  • 21Douglas Luiz↓87’7.7
  • 24A. Onana↓61’6.6
  • 10E. Buendía↓75’6.2
  • 27M. Rogers6.9
  • 31L. Bailey↓61’6.2
  • 11O. Watkins6.6

Substitutes used

  • 6R. Barkley↑61’7.5
  • 26L. Bogarde↑87’6.3
  • 18T. Abraham↑75’7.5
  • 19J. Sancho↑61’7.3
  • 16Andrés García↑87’6.6

Unused: J. Wright, V. Lindelöf, Pau Torres, L. Digne

Leeds 5-4-1

267.7 K. Darlow(G)
36.9 G. Gudmundsson ↓46’ 56.9 P. Struijk 67.3 J. Rodon 246.9 J. Justin 26.7 J. Bogle
116.2 B. Aaronson ↓73’ 446.0 I. Gruev 47.7 E. Ampadu 188.3★ A. Stach ↓83’
96.9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  • 26K. Darlow (G)7.7
  • 3G. Gudmundsson↓46’6.9
  • 5P. Struijk6.9
  • 6J. Rodon7.3
  • 24J. Justin6.9
  • 2J. Bogle6.7
  • 11B. Aaronson↓73’6.2
  • 44I. Gruev6.0
  • 4E. Ampadu7.7
  • 18A. Stach ★↓83’8.3
  • 9D. Calvert-Lewin6.9

Substitutes used

  • 15J. Bijol↑46’6.2
  • 14L. Nmecha↑73’6.2
  • 8S. Longstaff↑83’6.6

Unused: Lucas Perri, D. James, S. Bornauw, J. Piroe, A. Tanaka, D. Gnonto

Player stats

Top rated
A. StachLeeds8.3
2nd
Douglas LuizAston Villa7.7
3rd
K. DarlowLeeds7.7

Aston Villa

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
E. Martínez G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 65% 26 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
I. Maatsen D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 42 2 0 1/5 1/2 6.3
T. Mings D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 89% 66 0 1 0/1 2/0 6.6
E. Konsa D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 92% 64 2 3 0/0 0/1 7.3
M. Cash D 87 0 0 1 (0) 1 89% 55 1 3 2/2 1/1 7.6
Douglas Luiz M 87 0 0 0 (0) 2 92% 63 4 0 0/0 0/1 7.7
A. Onana M 61 0 0 1 (1) 0 85% 33 1 1 0/0 0/2 6.6
E. Buendía M 75 0 0 3 (0) 0 85% 26 0 0 0/1 2/2 6.2
M. Rogers F 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 85% 39 1 0 1/4 0/1 6.9
L. Bailey M 61 0 0 1 (1) 1 75% 20 0 0 2/6 1/0 6.2
O. Watkins F 90 0 0 2 (1) 2 71% 17 2 0 0/0 3/3 6.6
R. Barkley M 29 0 0 1 (0) 1 83% 30 0 0 1/1 1/2 7.5
L. Bogarde M 3 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
T. Abraham F 15 1 0 1 (1) 0 50% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
J. Sancho F 29 0 0 0 (0) 2 83% 29 1 0 1/1 0/0 7.3
Andrés García D 3 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6

Leeds

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
K. Darlow G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 58% 31 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.7
G. Gudmundsson D 46 0 0 1 (0) 0 64% 11 2 0 1/1 0/1 6.9
P. Struijk D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 36 2 1 1/1 1/0 6.9
J. Rodon D 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 87% 23 2 0 0/0 2/1 7.3
J. Justin D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 77% 22 3 3 0/0 0/2 6.9
J. Bogle D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 55% 20 3 0 1/3 2/1 6.7
B. Aaronson M 73 0 0 0 (0) 0 69% 13 1 1 1/2 0/2 6.2
I. Gruev M 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 92% 26 3 2 0/0 3/0 6.0
E. Ampadu D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 82% 28 5 2 0/0 2/1 7.7
A. Stach M 83 1 0 1 (1) 2 69% 13 0 2 0/2 1/1 8.3
D. Calvert-Lewin F 90 0 0 3 (2) 3 45% 20 1 0 0/0 2/0 6.9
J. Bijol D 44 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 5 0 0 0/0 2/1 6.2
L. Nmecha F 17 0 0 1 (1) 0 33% 6 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
S. Longstaff M 7 0 0 0 (0) 1 50% 2 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.6

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.