Aston Villa vs Leeds – 21 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 27 Sat, Feb 21 · 15:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 3rd · 50 pts · 26 played LWLDW

1–1Full time

Leeds 15th · 30 pts · 26 played WDLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Leeds. Aston Villa had 9.8 days of rest, Leeds 10.8 and had to travel 148 km.

Away travel148 kmRest days9.8 · 10.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Aston Villa56%

Draw23%

Leeds21%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.14

Aston Villa60%

Draw23%

Leeds17%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.93

Aston Villa57%

Draw23%

Leeds21%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.12

Aston Villa48%

Draw25%

Leeds27%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.28

Aston Villa54%

Draw24%

Leeds22%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.08

Over 2.5 60% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 200

Team strength

Aston Villa

Leeds

87 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

83 AttackIn forecast 69

78 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Leeds

1.42 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

1.04 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.73

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

69% Scored inContext 73%

31% Clean sheetsContext 15%

12.54 ShotsContext 12.19

4.35 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.96

35% On target shareContext 33%

8.32 Shots in the boxContext 8.46

63% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.16

12.77 Shots allowedContext 12.35

4.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.19

3.96 BlocksContext 3.79

3.12 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

72% Save rateContext 63%

53% PossessionIn forecast 46%

446 PassesContext 403

378 Accurate passesContext 323

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.79

9.81 FoulsContext 10.15

13.12 Fouls sufferedContext 11.19

1.46 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.80 ShotsContext 11.70

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 39%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

63% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.57

12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.40

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.20 BlocksContext 3.90

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

84% Save rateContext 61%

57% PossessionIn forecast 47%

489 PassesContext 408

418 Accurate passesContext 324

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.90

9.70 FoulsContext 9.50

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa

Rest9.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km392 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest10.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel148 km544 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb	10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	148 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	392 km	544 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 5	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

22I. Maatsen 5T. Mings 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

21Douglas Luiz 24A. Onana

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 31L. Bailey

11O. Watkins

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

5-4-1

26K. Darlow(G)

3G. Gudmundsson 5P. Struijk 6J. Rodon 24J. Justin 2J. Bogle

11B. Aaronson 44I. Gruev 4E. Ampadu 18A. Stach

9D. Calvert-Lewin

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa-0.8 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Leeds+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 2.15points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 9-1-3
Scored: 1.46
Conceded: 0.77

Leeds · Away 0.62points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-7
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 2.08

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Aston Villa	Leeds
Brighton	W 1–0 HW 4–3 A	L 0–3 A
Bournemouth	D 1–1 AW 4–0 H	D 2–2 H
Brentford	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Newcastle	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	L 3–4 AD 0–0 H
Everton	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 AL 0–3 H	W 4–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–1 H	W 3–1 HL 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 1–4 AW 2–1 H	L 0–4 HL 0–5 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H
Manchester United	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
West Ham	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 H
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 A
Liverpool	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H
Manchester City	W 1–0 H	L 2–3 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 H
Burnley	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Fulham	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Points	47 of 75 · 1.88 per game	30 of 75 · 1.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Aston Villa wins2 draws1 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.57 – 1.14 Over 2.571% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 29%

23 Nov 2025Leeds1–2Aston Villa
13 Jan 2023Aston Villa2–1Leeds
2 Oct 2022Leeds0–0Aston Villa
10 Mar 2022Leeds0–3Aston Villa
9 Feb 2022Aston Villa3–3Leeds
27 Feb 2021Leeds0–1Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.42	1.38
Conceded per game	1.04	1.73
Match goals	2.46	3.12	3.11
Over 1.5	65%	81%
Over 2.5	50%	62%	60%
Over 3.5	23%	46%
Both teams scored	50%	65%	59%
Clean sheets	31%	15%
Failed to score	31%	27%
Games	26	26

	Aston Villa	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.60
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	2.20	3.10	3.11
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	59%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.35	4.67
Corners conceded	4.85	4.58
Match total	10.20	9.25	9.96
Over 8.5	73% 19/26	63% 15/24
Over 9.5	69% 18/26	50% 12/24
Over 10.5	50% 13/26	33% 8/24
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.58
Opponent cards	2.46	1.73
Match total	3.96	3.31	3.87
Over 3.5	58% 15/26	38% 10/26
Over 4.5	35% 9/26	31% 8/26

	Aston Villa	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	4.80
Corners conceded	4.50	6.10
Match total	10.30	10.90	9.96
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.50
Opponent cards	2.30	1.70
Match total	3.70	3.20	3.87
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.72

Red cards0.14league 0.11

Cards 5+34%league 38%

Fouls22.4league 21.3

Penalties0.23league 0.22

Home wins42%league 43%

Aston Villa14 with this referee

Record7-0-7 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

W21 Dec 25H · Manchester United2–11
W26 Oct 25H · Manchester City1–01
W22 Feb 25H · Chelsea2–11
L24 Aug 24H · Arsenal0–21
W2 Mar 24A · Luton3–24

Leeds10 with this referee

Record2-2-6 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 2

L1 Nov 25A · Brighton0–31
D27 Sep 25H · Bournemouth2–22
L4 Mar 23A · Chelsea0–10
L13 Jan 23A · Aston Villa1–22
W29 Oct 22A · Liverpool2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.