Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest – 12 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 12 · 15:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 18th · 1 pts · 3 played LLD

1–2Full time

Nottingham Forest 16th · 2 pts · 3 played LDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. Aston Villa had 3.9 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 7 and had to travel 73 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel73 kmRest days3.9 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Aston Villa51%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest25%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.11

Aston Villa54%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest23%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.03

Aston Villa52%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest24%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.08

Aston Villa44%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.25

Aston Villa51%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest25%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.13

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

21°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 70%

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 145

Team strength

Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

83 AttackIn forecast 68

78 DefenceIn forecast 74

55 Form indexContext 39

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.85 Goals minus xGContext -0.62

0% Scored inContext 33%

33% Clean sheetsContext 33%

8.67 ShotsContext 12.00

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.33

4% On target shareContext 19%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

51% Box shareContext 61%

0% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.67

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

2.00 BlocksContext 4.67

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

67% Save rateContext 57%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

425 PassesContext 337

361 Accurate passesContext 251

85% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.49 Team ratingContext 6.87

11.00 FoulsContext 15.67

9.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.67

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.10 ShotsContext 11.10

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

37% On target shareContext 35%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

59% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 14%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.89

11.90 Shots allowedContext 15.90

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22

3.29 BlocksContext 6.00

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

69% Save rateContext 72%

48% PossessionIn forecast 44%

404 PassesContext 364

344 Accurate passesContext 289

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.10 FoulsContext 12.10

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa LLDW

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,109 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 55 · 4 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

W8 SepA · Club Brugge KV3–21.3 xPts
D5 SepA · Hull City0–01.9 xPts
L31 AugH · Arsenal0–11.0 xPts
L23 AugA · Brighton0–41.4 xPts

Nottingham Forest LDD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel73 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 39 · 2 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected

D5 SepH · Tottenham0–01.9 xPts
D29 AugA · Liverpool2–20.8 xPts
L22 AugH · Leeds0–11.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep	7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	73 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,109 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Z. Suzuki(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 3V. Lindelöf 29A. Wan-Bissaka

6R. Barkley 8B. Kamara

53George Hemmings 10E. Buendía 7J. McGinn

11N. Jackson

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26M. Sels(G)

5Murillo 2O. Diomande 34T. Aina

3N. Williams 21X. Schlager 24J. McAtee 27D. Muñoz

10M. Gibbs-White 14D. Ndoye

19L. Delap

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa-0.7 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nottingham Forest+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Nottingham Forest · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Aston Villa wins2 draws3 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game1.80 – 1.10 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

7 May 2026Aston Villa4–0Nottingham Forest
30 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest1–0Aston Villa
12 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest1–1Aston Villa
3 Jan 2026Aston Villa3–1Nottingham Forest
5 Apr 2025Aston Villa2–1Nottingham Forest
14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest2–1Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.67
Conceded per game	1.67	1.00
Match goals	1.67	1.67	2.82
Over 1.5	33%	33%
Over 2.5	33%	33%	53%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	0%	33%	55%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	100%	67%
Games	3	3

	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.50
Conceded per game	1.40	1.30
Match goals	3.30	2.80	2.82
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	2.67	3.33
Corners conceded	4.00	5.00
Match total	6.67	8.33	9.14
Over 8.5	0% 0/3	33% 1/3
Over 9.5	0% 0/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.00
Opponent cards	1.67	2.33
Match total	4.00	4.33	4.00
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3

	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.80
Corners conceded	4.40	5.20
Match total	9.20	9.00	9.14
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	3.80	3.40	4.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 145 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.34league 3.87

Red cards0.13league 0.03

Cards 5+28%league 37%

Fouls23.0league 23.4

Penalties0.17league 0.17

Home wins46%league 40%

Aston Villa15 with this referee

Record6-3-6 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 May 26A · Manchester City2–10
D7 Jan 26A · Crystal Palace0–00
W3 Dec 25A · Brighton4–32
W28 Sep 25H · Fulham3–11
L1 Feb 25A · Wolves0–23

Nottingham Forest6 with this referee

Record1-3-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L1 Mar 26A · Brighton1–21
W22 Nov 25A · Liverpool3–00
D5 May 25A · Crystal Palace1–17
D26 Feb 25H · Arsenal0–01
L11 Feb 23A · Fulham0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.