Atalanta vs Bologna – 31 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Mon, Aug 31 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 10th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–0Full time

Bologna 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bologna. Atalanta had 8 days of rest, Bologna 7.1 and had to travel 187 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel187 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Atalanta47%

Draw24%

Bologna29%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.25

Atalanta53%

Draw24%

Bologna23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Atalanta48%

Draw24%

Bologna28%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.23

Atalanta40%

Draw25%

Bologna35%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.40

Atalanta47%

Draw24%

Bologna28%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.21

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

26°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 53%

Warm

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 85

Team strength

Atalanta

Bologna

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

48 AttackIn forecast 35

45 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Bologna

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.00 ShotsContext 11.50

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

31% On target shareContext 30%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

67% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.63

12.50 Shots allowedContext 9.90

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.20 BlocksContext 3.33

4.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.88

80% Save rateContext 50%

56% PossessionIn forecast 55%

514 PassesContext 445

436 Accurate passesContext 381

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.70 FoulsContext 12.90

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta W

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 60 · 3 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W23 AugH · Sassuolo2–12.1 xPts

Bologna L

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel187 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L24 AugH · Lazio0–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Aug	7.1Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	187 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

4-3-3

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 42G. Scalvini 3K. Kossounou 77D. Zappacosta

13Éderson 70G. Gaetano 8M. Pašalić

18G. Raspadori 9G. Scamacca 17C. De Ketelaere

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

23Abdel Rahim 14T. Heggem 5E. Helland 2E. Holm

19L. Ferguson 4T. Pobega

28N. Cambiaghi 21J. Odgaard 10F. Bernardeschi

91R. Piccoli

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta-0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Bologna+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Bologna · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Atalanta wins2 draws4 Bologna wins

Goals per game0.90 – 0.80 Over 2.520% Both scored30% Clean sheets40% · 40%

17 May 2026Atalanta0–1Bologna
7 Jan 2026Bologna0–2Atalanta
13 Apr 2025Atalanta2–0Bologna
28 Sep 2024Bologna1–1Atalanta
3 Mar 2024Atalanta1–2Bologna
23 Dec 2023Bologna1–0Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	1.00	2.92
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	56%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Atalanta	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.70
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.92
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	8.00
Corners conceded	4.00	6.00
Match total	8.00	14.00	8.58
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	4.00
Opponent cards	0.00	4.00
Match total	0.00	8.00	3.32
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Atalanta	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.30
Corners conceded	3.50	4.40
Match total	8.10	8.70	8.58
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.40
Opponent cards	1.20	1.60
Match total	2.60	3.00	3.32
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.25league 3.32

Red cards0.19league 0.00

Cards 5+26%league 16%

Fouls24.4league 23.0

Penalties0.21league 0.00

Home wins27%league 37%

Atalanta8 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

D28 Oct 25H · AC Milan1–11
L30 Mar 25A · Fiorentina0–13
D14 Jan 25H · Juventus1–11
W3 Nov 24A · Napoli3–03
L7 May 23H · Juventus0–21

Bologna7 with this referee

Record3-3-1 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 2

L18 Jan 26H · Fiorentina1–23
W30 Aug 25H · Como1–04
D4 May 25H · Juventus1–11
D19 Oct 24A · Genoa2–20
D3 Dec 23A · Lecce1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.