Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were slight favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 42). Absences weigh more on Atalanta. Atalanta had 7.1 days of rest, Como 7.2 and had to travel 47 km.
Away travel47 kmRest days7.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Atalanta59%
Draw24%
Como17%
Atalanta63%
Draw22%
Como15%
Atalanta61%
Draw23%
Como16%
Atalanta52%
Draw26%
Como22%
Atalanta61%
Draw22%
Como17%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 27
Team strength
Atalanta
Como
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
48
AttackIn forecast
72
45
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaComo
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
15.40
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
33%
On target shareContext
31%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
69%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
3.50
OffsidesContext
—
12.60
Shots allowedContext
9.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.40
3.60
BlocksContext
4.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
87%
Save rateContext
55%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
462
PassesContext
473
389
Accurate passesContext
405
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.40
FoulsContext
15.80
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.40
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
15.40
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
29%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.90
Shots allowedContext
9.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.50
BlocksContext
3.57
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.78
75%
Save rateContext
59%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
438
PassesContext
485
368
Accurate passesContext
418
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.60
FoulsContext
14.00
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km678 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel47 km566 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 47 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 678 km | 566 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 14.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
69H. Ahanor
4I. Hien
19B. Djimsiti
47L. Bernasconi
8M. Pašalić
13Éderson
77D. Zappacosta
7K. Sulemana
10L. Samardžić
11A. Lookman
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
31M. Vojvoda
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
42J. Addai
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta-2.1 pp
- Draw+0.7 pp
- Como+1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Como · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Atalanta wins0 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Jan 2025Como1–2Atalanta
- 24 Sep 2024Atalanta2–3Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Atalanta | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.25 | 8.67 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.40 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 6.00 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Atalanta | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 8.25 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 1.60 | 4.80 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.70league 3.61
Red cards0.11league 0.13
Cards 5+26%league 37%
Fouls23.6league 25.9
Penalties0.22league 0.26
Home wins63%league 39%
Atalanta1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Oct 24A · Venezia2–01
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta5 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Como4 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Como9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
