Atalanta vs Genoa – 2 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 35 Sat, May 2 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 7th · 54 pts · 34 played WWLDL

0–0Full time

Genoa 14th · 39 pts · 34 played LLWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genoa. Atalanta had 5.1 days of rest, Genoa 6.2 and had to travel 154 km.

Away travel154 kmRest days5.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Atalanta57%

Draw24%

Genoa19%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.95

Atalanta62%

Draw22%

Genoa16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.90

Atalanta57%

Draw24%

Genoa19%

Expected goals 1.78 – 0.93

Atalanta49%

Draw26%

Genoa24%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.06

Atalanta58%

Draw23%

Genoa19%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.02

Over 2.5 52% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

RefereeIvano Pezzuto

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 14

Team strength

Atalanta

Genoa

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

48 AttackIn forecast 23

45 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Genoa

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.18

0.94 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.41

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

82% Scored inContext 65%

35% Clean sheetsContext 21%

14.41 ShotsContext 11.35

4.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.88

31% On target shareContext 34%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 7.09

65% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.52 OffsidesContext 1.80

11.50 Shots allowedContext 12.56

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.47

3.19 BlocksContext 4.35

3.37 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

79% Save rateContext 69%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

488 PassesContext 377

415 Accurate passesContext 305

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.79 FoulsContext 12.41

10.06 Fouls sufferedContext 14.74

1.59 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 34 and 34 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

90% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.60 ShotsContext 12.70

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

30% On target shareContext 31%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

67% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 9%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.29

13.70 Shots allowedContext 10.70

5.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.50 BlocksContext 3.10

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

60% Save rateContext 76%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

502 PassesContext 428

426 Accurate passesContext 358

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.70 FoulsContext 9.70

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,402 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genoa

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel154 km280 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Apr	6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	154 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,402 km	280 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

69H. Ahanor 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

59N. Zalewski 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović 9G. Scamacca

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

20S. Sabelli 32M. Frendrup 4Alexsandro Amorim 77M. Ellertsson

21J. Ekhator 9Vítinha

29L. Colombo

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Genoa Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Genoa+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.88points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 9-5-3
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 0.82

Genoa · Away 1.06points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-7
Scored: 1.19
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Genoa
Cagliari	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 HD 3–3 A
AS Roma	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Juventus	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
Lecce	W 3–0 AW 4–1 H	D 0–0 H
Verona	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Inter	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	L 0–2 AL 1–2 H
Udinese	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Sassuolo	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Napoli	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A	L 2–3 HL 1–2 A
Lazio	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	L 2–3 AL 0–3 H
Cremonese	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Como	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Parma	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Pisa	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Torino	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Bologna	W 2–0 A	W 3–2 HL 1–2 A
Fiorentina	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 H
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	51 of 99 · 1.55 per game	39 of 99 · 1.18 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 Atalanta wins2 draws0 Genoa wins

Goals per game2.14 – 0.57 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets57% · 29%

21 Dec 2025Genoa0–1Atalanta
17 May 2025Genoa2–3Atalanta
5 Oct 2024Atalanta5–1Genoa
11 Feb 2024Genoa1–4Atalanta
22 Oct 2023Atalanta2–0Genoa
13 Mar 2022Atalanta0–0Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.18
Conceded per game	0.94	1.41
Match goals	2.32	2.59	2.75
Over 1.5	76%	82%
Over 2.5	38%	56%	52%
Over 3.5	18%	18%
Both teams scored	53%	56%	52%
Clean sheets	35%	21%
Failed to score	18%	35%
Games	34	34

	Atalanta	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.10	1.10
Match goals	2.60	2.20	2.75
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.97	3.50
Corners conceded	4.24	5.27
Match total	10.21	8.77	8.67
Over 8.5	67% 22/33	50% 15/30
Over 9.5	52% 17/33	37% 11/30
Over 10.5	42% 14/33	17% 5/30
Cards
Cards	1.65	1.82
Opponent cards	1.50	2.68
Match total	3.15	4.50	3.87
Over 3.5	44% 15/34	79% 27/34
Over 4.5	9% 3/34	44% 15/34

	Atalanta	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	4.30
Corners conceded	3.90	4.40
Match total	9.70	8.70	8.67
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.00
Opponent cards	1.80	3.00
Match total	3.00	4.00	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ivano Pezzuto 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.57league 3.70

Red cards0.14league 0.18

Cards 5+43%league 35%

Fouls28.4league 24.8

Penalties0.14league 0.29

Home wins29%league 40%

Atalanta

No previous matches with this referee.

Genoa

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.