Atalanta
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atalanta56.9%fair odds 1.76
Draw24.1%fair odds 4.14
Genoa19.0%fair odds 5.27
Expected goals1.80 – 0.95total 2.75
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genoa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atalanta ↓ · Genoa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atalanta goals, columns Genoa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.69
- 1–011.0%9.11
- 2–010.4%9.62
- 2–19.8%10.17
- 0–07.0%14.29
- 3–06.2%16.03
- 3–15.9%16.95
- 0–15.5%18.20
- 1–25.2%19.34
- 2–24.7%21.49
Winning margin
15.1%
Atalanta by 3+
fair 6.60
17.7%
Atalanta by 2
fair 5.65
24.0%
Atalanta by 1
fair 4.16
24.1%
Draw
fair 4.14
12.4%
Genoa by 1
fair 8.09
4.9%
Genoa by 2
fair 20.44
1.7%
Genoa by 3+
fair 57.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Atalanta goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Genoa goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 56.9% | 57.9% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.1% | 23.0% | +1.2 pp |
| Genoa win | 19.0% | 19.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 56.7% | -4.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 55.3% | -3.7 pp |
| Expected goals Atalanta | 1.80 | 1.93 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Genoa | 0.95 | 1.02 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atalanta win56.9%1.76
- Draw24.1%4.14
- Genoa win19.0%5.27
- Double chance Atalanta or draw81.0%1.23
- Double chance Atalanta or Genoa75.9%1.32
- Double chance Genoa or draw43.1%2.32
- Draw no bet Atalanta75.0%1.33
- Draw no bet Genoa25.0%4.00
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.5%1.31
- Over 2.551.8%1.93
- Over 3.529.6%3.38
- Over 4.514.4%6.95
- Under 1.523.5%4.26
- Under 2.548.2%2.07
- Under 3.570.4%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.07
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.49
- Atalanta win and yes25.1%3.99
- Draw and yes17.1%5.83
- Genoa win and yes9.4%10.59
Team goals
- Atalanta over 0.583.5%1.20
- Atalanta over 1.553.7%1.86
- Atalanta over 2.526.9%3.71
- Genoa over 0.561.2%1.63
- Genoa over 1.524.4%4.09
- Genoa over 2.57.1%14.16
- Atalanta clean sheet38.8%2.58
- Genoa clean sheet16.5%6.05
- Atalanta win to nil31.8%3.14
- Genoa win to nil9.5%10.49
Handicap
- Atalanta −1.532.8%3.04
- Atalanta −2.515.1%6.60
- Genoa +1.567.2%1.49
- Genoa +2.584.9%1.18
- Genoa −1.56.6%15.11
- Atalanta +1.593.4%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored343
Favourite won51.0%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right52.2%
BTTS called right51.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 53 | 37.8% | 32.1% |
| 40–50% | 113 | 45.0% | 48.7% |
| 50–60% | 83 | 54.4% | 45.8% |
| 60–70% | 62 | 64.7% | 69.4% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 73.3% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 294 of 343 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5950 | 0.5801 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.7% | 53.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 294 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 343 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.