Atalanta
Attack+64%
Defense risk−27%
Our take
Atalanta were clear favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Venezia. Venezia were without G. Busio and R. Haps. Atalanta had 22 days of rest, Venezia 22.9 and had to travel 209 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel209 kmRest days22 · 22.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Atalanta75%
Draw15%
Venezia10%
Atalanta76%
Draw15%
Venezia9%
Atalanta74%
Draw15%
Venezia11%
Atalanta68%
Draw18%
Venezia14%
Atalanta75%
Draw15%
Venezia10%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
17°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 61%
Referee · ItalyParide Tremolada
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 11
Team strength
Atalanta
Venezia
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
48
AttackIn forecast
21
45
DefenceIn forecast
14
41
Form indexContext
6
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVenezia
Attack−4%
Defense risk+1%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
AtalantaVenezia
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
0.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.47
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
80%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
14.20
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
32%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
59%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.40
19.20
Shots allowedContext
14.00
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
5.50
BlocksContext
2.40
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
81%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
506
PassesContext
480
448
Accurate passesContext
409
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.60
FoulsContext
11.20
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.10
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
32%
On target shareContext
31%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
68%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.20
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.78
BlocksContext
3.80
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
78%
Save rateContext
61%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
512
PassesContext
425
444
Accurate passesContext
352
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.90
FoulsContext
12.70
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
WWLLL
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Venezia
LLLLL
Rest22.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel209 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 0 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Venezia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 22.9Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 209 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
77D. Zappacosta
42G. Scalvini
31T. Kristensen
16R. Bellanova
13Éderson
19F. Kessie
11J. Rowe
17C. De Ketelaere
99E. Elmas
90N. Krstović
Venezia
Confirmed XI
1F. Stanković(G)
2M. Moreno
15Juan Jesus
25R. Halhal
14Thierry Correia
26T. Bašić
19S. Sohm
71Kike Pérez
18A. Hainaut
45A. Adams
10J. Yeboah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −5.7% · Defence line −9.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF I. Hien Rotation 6.75 Def −4.6%
- DEF O. Kossounou Rotation 6.64 Def −3.7%
- ATT G. Raspadori Rotation 6.88 Att −4.4%
- MID K. Sulemana Rotation 6.60 Att −1.3% Def −1.0%
Venezia
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.11 goals
Attack line −21.0% · Defence line −24.2% of weighted minutes
- MID G. Busio Core 7.27 Att −14.5% Def −7.2%
- DEF R. Haps Starter 6.34 Def −7.8%
- DEF A. Bella-Kotchap Starter 6.64 Def −6.0%
- MID B. Franjić Starter 7.05 Att −4.1% Def −2.1%
- MID T. Bašić Rotation 6.75 Att −2.3% Def −1.1%
- MID M. Dagasso Depth 6.20 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Venezia-0.7 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Venezia · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Atalanta wins1 draws0 Venezia wins
Goals per game2.25 – 0.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 1 Mar 2025Atalanta0–0Venezia
- 20 Oct 2024Venezia0–2Atalanta
- 23 Apr 2022Venezia1–3Atalanta
- 30 Nov 2021Atalanta4–0Venezia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Venezia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.40 | 3.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Atalanta | Venezia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.40 | 3.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Venezia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.80 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.20 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 4.60 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Atalanta | Venezia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 8.40 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paride Tremolada Italy · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.09league 3.36
Red cards0.18league 0.05
Cards 5+64%league 29%
Fouls24.5league 21.9
Penalties0.45league 0.12
Home wins45%league 45%
Atalanta1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L24 Sep 24H · Como2–31
Venezia1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L18 Aug 24A · Lazio1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta5 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Venezia5 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
Venezia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
