Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 38). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Athletic Club had 5.3 days of rest, Elche 7 and had to travel 587 km.
Away travel587 kmRest days5.3 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Athletic Club56%
Draw24%
Elche20%
Athletic Club57%
Draw24%
Elche19%
Athletic Club58%
Draw23%
Elche19%
Athletic Club48%
Draw26%
Elche26%
Athletic Club57%
Draw23%
Elche20%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 127
Team strength
Athletic Club
Elche
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
51
AttackIn forecast
39
64
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubElche
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
67%
Scored inContext
83%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.92
ShotsContext
10.75
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
32%
On target shareContext
35%
9.55
Shots in the boxContext
7.42
66%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
9.42
Shots allowedContext
14.25
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
2.37
BlocksContext
3.92
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
69%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
413
PassesContext
507
334
Accurate passesContext
438
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.54
FoulsContext
12.46
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
13.63
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.22
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
90%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.40
ShotsContext
10.70
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
33%
On target shareContext
33%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
66%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.60
9.30
Shots allowedContext
16.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
1.63
BlocksContext
4.30
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
61%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
404
PassesContext
484
321
Accurate passesContext
414
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.60
FoulsContext
12.40
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km473 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Elche
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel587 km1,143 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 587 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 473 km | 1,143 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
3Dani Vivian
15Lekue
30Alejandro Rego Mora
16Ruíz de Galarreta
9I. Williams
8Oihan Sancet
20Unai Gómez
11Gorka Guruzeta
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
23Víctor Chust
21L. Pétrot
8Marc Aguado
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
24Lucas Cepeda
15Tete Morente
9André Silva
20Á. Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-2.2 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Elche+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.17
Elche · Away
0.36points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Levante | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Mallorca | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–4 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Valencia | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 69 · 1.30 per game | 24 of 69 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Athletic Club wins2 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.71
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets43% · 57%
- 19 Oct 2025Elche0–0Athletic Club
- 28 May 2023Athletic Club0–1Elche
- 11 Sep 2022Elche1–4Athletic Club
- 3 Apr 2022Athletic Club2–1Elche
- 16 Aug 2021Elche0–0Athletic Club
- 22 May 2021Elche2–0Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 54% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Athletic Club | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.92 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.21 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 16/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 13/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 9/24 | 21% 5/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.46 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 14/24 | 79% 19/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Athletic Club | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.90 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.50 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.07league 4.16
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+59%league 46%
Fouls25.0league 24.6
Penalties0.30league 0.37
Home wins40%league 47%
Athletic Club12 with this referee
Record2-5-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L14 Dec 25A · Celta Vigo0–20
- D9 Mar 25H · Mallorca1–11
- D26 Jan 25H · Leganes0–01
- L31 Aug 24H · Atletico Madrid0–13
- D3 Mar 24H · Barcelona0–03
Elche5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L28 Nov 25A · Getafe0–12
- L2 May 23A · Almeria1–22
- L7 May 22A · Cadiz0–31
- L6 Mar 22H · Barcelona1–23
- D21 Mar 21A · Getafe1–17
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club23 games · scored 27 · conceded 32
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
4
61-75
8
8
76-90
Elche24 games · scored 31 · conceded 35
5
8
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
8
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
14
76-90
Athletic Club9 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
