Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Athletic Club
12th · 35 pts · 28 played
WWDLL
2–1Full time
Real Betis
5th · 44 pts · 28 played
WDDLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 58). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Athletic Club had 8.2 days of rest, Real Betis 2.9 and had to travel 703 km.
Away travel703 kmRest days8.2 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Athletic Club35%
Draw29%
Real Betis36%
Athletic Club37%
Draw27%
Real Betis35%
Athletic Club35%
Draw29%
Real Betis35%
Athletic Club28%
Draw28%
Real Betis43%
Athletic Club36%
Draw28%
Real Betis36%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 39
Team strength
Athletic ClubReal Betis
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
51
AttackIn forecast
79
64
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubReal Betis
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
64%
Scored inContext
89%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.93
ShotsContext
14.36
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.79
33%
On target shareContext
33%
9.62
Shots in the boxContext
8.71
66%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.25
9.43
Shots allowedContext
12.04
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.21
2.41
BlocksContext
3.07
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
68%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
405
PassesContext
453
326
Accurate passesContext
383
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.96
FoulsContext
10.43
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
13.29
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
14.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
35%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
65%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
3.40
OffsidesContext
2.14
8.90
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.00
BlocksContext
2.60
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
61%
Save rateContext
76%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
365
PassesContext
478
281
Accurate passesContext
412
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.93
16.00
FoulsContext
10.40
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km983 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel703 km5,207 km in 14d
Schedule load39%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 39 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 703 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 983 km | 5,207 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
3Dani Vivian
15Lekue
16Ruíz de Galarreta
30Alejandro Rego Mora
7Álex Berenguer
8Oihan Sancet
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
25Pau López(G)
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
40Ángel Ortiz
10A. Ezzalzouli
21Marc Roca
14S. Amrabat
7Antony
19C. Hernández
24Aitor Ruibal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Real Betis+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.64points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-5
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.14
Real Betis · Away
1.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-3
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 3–5 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Elche | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 1–5 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Alaves | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 32 of 81 · 1.19 per game | 44 of 81 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Athletic Club wins4 draws3 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.30
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 31 Aug 2025Real Betis1–2Athletic Club
- 2 Feb 2025Real Betis2–2Athletic Club
- 3 Nov 2024Athletic Club1–1Real Betis
- 25 Feb 2024Real Betis3–1Athletic Club
- 27 Aug 2023Athletic Club4–2Real Betis
- 4 May 2023Athletic Club0–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.79 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 46% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 64% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 11% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Athletic Club | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.79 | 5.19 | |
| Match total | 9.08 | 9.52 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 18/28 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 10/28 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.39 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 2.68 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 4.61 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 16/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Athletic Club | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.30 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.40 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.90league 4.22
Red cards0.38league 0.28
Cards 5+59%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.44league 0.36
Home wins54%league 48%
Athletic Club5 with this referee
Record5-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W8 Feb 26H · Levante4–22
- W6 Dec 25H · Atletico Madrid1–03
- W18 May 25A · Valencia1–01
- W16 Mar 24H · Alaves2–02
- W22 Sep 23A · Alaves2–02
Real Betis4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D14 Sep 25A · Levante2–22
- W12 May 24H · Almeria3–20
- D3 Dec 23A · Almeria0–04
- W2 Sep 23H · Rayo Vallecano1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club27 games · scored 30 · conceded 38
3
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
9
10
76-90
Real Betis28 games · scored 43 · conceded 35
3
9
0-15
9
4
16-30
7
6
31-45
8
6
46-60
7
4
61-75
9
6
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
