Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Athletic Club
14th · 24 pts · 21 played
LLDLL
1–1Full time
Real Sociedad
8th · 27 pts · 21 played
DDWWW
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Real Sociedad. Athletic Club had 8.1 days of rest, Real Sociedad 7.1 and had to travel 77 km.
Away travel77 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Athletic Club41%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad31%
Athletic Club45%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad29%
Athletic Club42%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad30%
Athletic Club34%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad38%
Athletic Club42%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad31%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 37
Team strength
Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
51
AttackIn forecast
62
64
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
0.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
62%
Scored inContext
86%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
13.43
ShotsContext
13.05
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
33%
On target shareContext
37%
9.32
Shots in the boxContext
7.86
66%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.82
9.76
Shots allowedContext
12.38
4.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
2.44
BlocksContext
3.50
3.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.72
70%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
411
PassesContext
426
332
Accurate passesContext
351
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.90
FoulsContext
14.62
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.95
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.30
ShotsContext
13.00
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
33%
On target shareContext
42%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
65%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
1.80
BlocksContext
3.11
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
67%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
377
PassesContext
424
293
Accurate passesContext
349
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.90
FoulsContext
13.30
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,406 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel77 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 77 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,406 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
19Adama Boiro
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
12Jesús Areso
30Alejandro Rego Mora
18Mikel Jauregizar
10Nico Williams
20Unai Gómez
7Álex Berenguer
11Gorka Guruzeta
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
5Zubeldia
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
15Pablo Marín
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
10Mikel Oyarzabal
24L. Sučić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Real Sociedad+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.10
Real Sociedad · Away
1.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-4
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Valencia | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Athletic Club wins3 draws3 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.20
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 1 Nov 2025Real Sociedad3–2Athletic Club
- 4 May 2025Real Sociedad0–0Athletic Club
- 24 Nov 2024Athletic Club1–0Real Sociedad
- 13 Jan 2024Athletic Club2–1Real Sociedad
- 30 Sep 2023Real Sociedad3–0Athletic Club
- 15 Apr 2023Athletic Club2–0Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.95 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.76 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 81% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.52 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.62 | 10.38 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 15/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 13/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 9/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 4.76 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 11/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.40 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.30 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.68league 4.17
Red cards0.30league 0.28
Cards 5+62%league 45%
Fouls26.0league 24.6
Penalties0.41league 0.36
Home wins49%league 47%
Athletic Club5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W15 May 25A · Getafe2–00
- D14 Apr 24H · Villarreal1–13
- L25 Feb 24A · Real Betis1–36
- W5 Nov 23A · Villarreal3–24
- W16 Sep 23H · Cadiz3–01
Real Sociedad4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D20 Dec 25A · Levante1–12
- D20 Apr 25A · Villarreal2–21
- L13 May 24A · Barcelona0–23
- D25 Aug 23A · Las Palmas0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club20 games · scored 20 · conceded 28
3
4
0-15
1
16-30
7
7
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
Real Sociedad21 games · scored 29 · conceded 29
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
8
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
7
76-90
Athletic Club9 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
