Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Athletic Club
14th · 24 pts · 21 played
LLDLL
1–1Full time
Real Sociedad
8th · 27 pts · 21 played
DDWWW
Athletic Club41.3%fair odds 2.42
Draw27.7%fair odds 3.62
Real Sociedad31.0%fair odds 3.22
Expected goals1.40 – 1.18total 2.58
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Athletic Club ↓ · Real Sociedad → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Athletic Club goals, columns Real Sociedad goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.58
- 1–010.0%10.05
- 2–18.8%11.42
- 0–18.3%12.06
- 0–08.3%12.12
- 2–07.4%13.47
- 1–27.4%13.54
- 0–25.3%18.93
- 2–25.2%19.36
- 3–14.1%24.49
Winning margin
7.4%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 13.55
12.4%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 8.03
21.5%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 4.66
27.7%
Draw
fair 3.62
18.0%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 5.55
8.9%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 11.29
4.2%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 24.00
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Athletic Club goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Real Sociedad goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 41.3% | 42.4% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.3% | +1.4 pp |
| Real Sociedad win | 31.0% | 31.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.6% | 53.1% | -5.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.8% | 57.1% | -4.3 pp |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.40 | 1.52 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.18 | 1.28 | -0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Athletic Club win41.3%2.42
- Draw27.7%3.62
- Real Sociedad win31.0%3.22
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw69.0%1.45
- Double chance Athletic Club or Real Sociedad72.3%1.38
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw58.7%1.70
- Draw no bet Athletic Club57.1%1.75
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad42.9%2.33
Goals
- Over 0.591.7%1.09
- Over 1.573.5%1.36
- Over 2.547.6%2.10
- Over 3.525.9%3.86
- Over 4.512.0%8.36
- Under 1.526.5%3.77
- Under 2.552.4%1.91
- Under 3.574.1%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes52.8%1.89
- No47.2%2.12
- Yes and over 2.539.6%2.52
- Athletic Club win and yes18.8%5.31
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Real Sociedad win and yes14.6%6.85
Team goals
- Athletic Club over 0.575.3%1.33
- Athletic Club over 1.540.8%2.45
- Athletic Club over 2.516.6%6.02
- Real Sociedad over 0.569.3%1.44
- Real Sociedad over 1.533.0%3.03
- Real Sociedad over 2.511.6%8.61
- Athletic Club clean sheet30.7%3.25
- Real Sociedad clean sheet24.7%4.05
- Athletic Club win to nil22.5%4.45
- Real Sociedad win to nil16.4%6.08
Handicap
- Athletic Club −1.519.8%5.04
- Athletic Club −2.57.4%13.55
- Real Sociedad +1.580.2%1.25
- Real Sociedad +2.592.6%1.08
- Real Sociedad −1.513.0%7.68
- Athletic Club +1.587.0%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored217
Favourite won54.8%
Avg chance given to result41.9%
1X2 Brier0.563
Over 2.5 called right59.4%
BTTS called right56.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 37.9% | 39.5% |
| 40–50% | 92 | 44.7% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.7% | 61.0% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 64.5% | 65.2% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.6% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 186 of 217 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5603 | 0.5570 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.0% | 42.6% |
| Favourite won | 55.9% | 55.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 186 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 217 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.