Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Athletic Club
11th · 38 pts · 30 played
DLLWL
1–2Full time
Villarreal
3rd · 58 pts · 30 played
LWDWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 57). Athletic Club had 7.3 days of rest, Villarreal 6 and had to travel 438 km.
Away travel438 kmRest days7.3 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Athletic Club37%
Draw29%
Villarreal34%
Athletic Club37%
Draw27%
Villarreal36%
Athletic Club37%
Draw30%
Villarreal34%
Athletic Club30%
Draw29%
Villarreal41%
Athletic Club37%
Draw28%
Villarreal35%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 14
Team strength
Athletic ClubVillarreal
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
51
AttackIn forecast
76
64
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubVillarreal
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
63%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.93
4.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.59
33%
On target shareContext
37%
9.32
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
67%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.73
9.47
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.79
2.33
BlocksContext
4.04
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
67%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
407
PassesContext
391
327
Accurate passesContext
322
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.77
FoulsContext
11.87
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.83
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.20
ShotsContext
11.10
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
33%
On target shareContext
38%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.60
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
1.86
BlocksContext
3.00
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
58%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
387
PassesContext
371
306
Accurate passesContext
299
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.79
15.30
FoulsContext
11.30
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km671 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel438 km669 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 438 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 671 km | 669 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 11 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
3Dani Vivian
15Lekue
16Ruíz de Galarreta
18Mikel Jauregizar
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
11Alfon González
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
17T. Buchanan
21T. Oluwaseyi
7Gerard Moreno
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Villarreal+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.73points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-5
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.13
Villarreal · Away
1.40points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-6
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.47
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Girona | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AW 5–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Elche | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Levante | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | W 3–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Mallorca | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Alaves | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 38 of 87 · 1.31 per game | 55 of 87 · 1.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Athletic Club wins4 draws2 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.530%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 27 Sep 2025Villarreal1–0Athletic Club
- 6 Apr 2025Villarreal0–0Athletic Club
- 8 Dec 2024Athletic Club2–0Villarreal
- 14 Apr 2024Athletic Club1–1Villarreal
- 5 Nov 2023Villarreal2–3Athletic Club
- 13 May 2023Villarreal5–1Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.97 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 57% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 17% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Athletic Club | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.83 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.06 | 8.55 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 19/30 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 11/30 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.27 | 4.46 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 17/30 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 12/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Athletic Club | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 8.20 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.60 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.64league 4.28
Red cards0.36league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls23.6league 24.5
Penalties0.36league 0.36
Home wins57%league 49%
Athletic Club2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.6.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds2
- L17 Jan 26A · Mallorca2–39
- D19 Oct 25A · Elche0–03
Villarreal1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Nov 25H · Mallorca2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club29 games · scored 32 · conceded 41
3
6
0-15
3
1
16-30
9
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
9
11
76-90
Villarreal30 games · scored 54 · conceded 35
6
3
0-15
8
4
16-30
12
6
31-45
12
7
46-60
8
5
61-75
8
10
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
